Markets & Economy: October 2009

10/30/09

Black Monday: Ancient History Or Imminent Future?

By Nico Isaac

The following article includes analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the 75-page eBook Independent Investor eBook. It’s a compilation of some of the New York Times bestselling author’s writings that challenge conventional financial market assumptions. Visit Elliott Wave International to download the eBook, free.

Once upon a time, the term "Black Monday" was to Wall Street what the name "Lord Voldemort" was to Hogwarts. It turned the air freezing cold and sent traders flinching around every corner in fear of a repeat of the October 19, 1987 or October 28, 1929 meltdown.

Case in point: The 2008 "Black Monday" anniversary. At the time, the U.S. stock market was locked in a ferocious downtrend that included regular, triple-digit daily declines of 400 points and more. Needless to say, when the final two Mondays of October arrived, the least superstitious investors surrounded their portfolios with more good-luck talismans than a Bingo player. See October 19, 2008 AP headline below:

"Black Monday: Stocks Sink As Gloom Seizes Wall Street. Prolonged Economic Turmoil" is seen.

That was then. Today, the usual dread surrounding the back-to-back string of "Black Mondays" is nowhere to be found. In its place, media reports abound of a new, global bull market "shrugging off," "ignoring," and "making a distant memory" of the event.

For one, "gloom" hasn't "seized" the U.S. stock market in quite a while; from its March 2009 low, the Dow has risen more than 50% to above the psychologically important 10,000 level. For another, the mainstream experts insist that today's financial animal is unrecognizable to that of 1987, and especially 1929. In their eyes, it's a completely different -- i.e. safer, smarter, and sounder system.

We beg to differ.

See, while the usual experts want to put as much mental distance between today's market and those that facilitated the 1987 recession and 1929-1932 Great Depression -- the physical similarities are impossible to ignore; more so, in fact, to the latter scenario.

Here, the October 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast presents the following news clip from the October 25, 1929 New York Daily Investment News.

Now, take a look at these headlines from the week of October 12-17, 2009:

"The Great Recession Is Over." (Reuters) --- "80% of Economists Say The Worst Is Behind Us." (CNN Money) --- "The Bull Is Back" (AP) --- "The Economic Recovery Is Well Underway" (Wall Street Journal)

They're interchangeable -- Eighty years later.

Along with a similar extreme in bullish sentiment, the performance of stocks between now and the 1929 situation is cut from the same cloth. After an initial plunge from August 1929 through late October 1929, the US stock market enjoyed a powerful rally well into the following year. NOW: After a steep freefall from its October 2007 peak, the US stock market is once again enjoying the fruits of a powerful rally back to new highs for the year.
Also, on closer examination, the October 19 Elliott Wave Theorist (EWT, for short) uncovers an even deeper parallel between the 2009 rally and the 1929-30 one. Here, EWT presents the following snapshot of the Dow during the Depression-era advance:

As Bob Prechter points out -- in 1930, stocks rallied to the level of the preceding year's gap. Bob then reveals that the same level has been reached now.
So, we all know how the 1930 rally ended. The question is whether the 2009 advance will experience the same fate. As Bob explains in the Theorist, the only way to know for certain is to "look at the reality of the situation."

For more information, download Robert Prechter’s free Independent Investor eBook. The 75-page resource teaches investors to think independently by challenging conventional financial market assumptions.

Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the world’s foremost expert on and proponent of the deflationary scenario. Prechter is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

10/26/09

Ron Paul on Fed Audit: Anything But Full Disclosure is Unacceptable!

10/23/09

EWI offers free ebook: How to Survive Deflation

Our friends at Elliott Wave International put together an expansive Deflation Survival Guide. The free 60-page eBook is packed with Robert Prechter's most important teachings and warnings about deflation. This is one of the most valuable resources EWI has ever offered at no cost. Learn more below or download it now for free.

Greetings,

We want to tell you about a financial analyst who’s made the journey from fame to outcast and back. We want to tell you about the man who successfully forecast today’s investment environment when virtually everyone, everywhere said he was wrong.

Please allow me to share with you a quote from a popular journalist of the early 1900s, Kin Hubbard:

“There's no secret about success. Did you ever know a successful man who didn't tell you about it?”

To that, we reply, “Would you have ever benefited from his success if he hadn’t?”

The irony about this quote, and success itself, is that the road to success is often littered with scores of detractors.

They try to discredit your accomplishments.

They try to disprove your research.

Finally, once your mounting evidence forms a mountain too high to climb, they find a way to jump on your bandwagon.

In 2002, when Robert Prechter released a book called Conquer the Crash – You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression, an eventual New York Times, Wall Street Journal and Amazon best-seller, the detractors were out in full force.

The elite financial community labeled Prechter – the 1980s “Guru of the Decade” – an outcast, a man preoccupied with the concerns of “small children.” Experts from all schools of the economics profession said Prechter’s deflationary scenario was “utter nonsense,” and as likely to happen as “being eaten by piranhas.”

“It couldn’t happen!”

“It never will!” they guaranteed.

Yet … here it is. Since the real estate top in 2005, deflation has festered its way into almost all asset classes, ravaging the portfolios of millions. If you’ve been spared from deflation’s mighty jaws, you surely know someone who hasn’t.

Steadfastly throughout the years, Prechter issued warning after warning about the coming deflation. He provided helpful tips to investors, students, homeowners and business people alike on how to survive the coming deflation. Those who heeded his warnings have kept themselves, their families and their money safe. Some even realized modest gains while others endured life-altering losses.

If you haven’t yet given Prechter’s deflation argument your full attention, we write today to tell you that yesterday was the best time to do so.
Prechter’s complete writings on deflation literally fill thousands of pages. Now, for a limited time, Prechter has compiled his most important deflation writings into a special 60-page Deflation Survival Guide.

Until today, most of the forecasts and advice in this still-prescient eBook have only been released to Prechter’s faithful subscribers. You will not find its entire contents in other books or from other sources. This is your FREE definitive Deflation Survival Guide.

Download your 60-page Deflation Survival Guide now.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International

Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.

10/22/09

Earnings: Is That REALLY What's Driving The DJIA Higher? The idea of earnings driving the broad stock market is a myth.

By Vadim Pokhlebkin

It's corporate earnings season again, and everywhere you turn, analysts talk about the influence of earnings on the broad stock market:

US Stocks Surge On Data, 3Q Earnings From JPMorgan, Intel (Wall Street Journal)
Stocks Open Down on J&J Earnings (Washington Post)
European Stocks Surge; US Earnings Lift Mood (Wall Street Journal)

With so much emphasis on earnings, this may come as a shock: The idea of earnings driving the broad stock market is a myth.

When making a statement like that, you'd better have proof. Robert Prechter, EWI's founder and CEO, presented some of it in his 1999 Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (excerpt; italics added):

Are stocks driven by corporate earnings? In June 1991, The Wall Street Journal reported on a study by Goldman Sachs’s Barrie Wigmore, who found that “only 35% of stock price growth [in the 1980s] can be attributed to earnings and interest rates.” Wigmore concludes that all the rest is due simply to changing social attitudes toward holding stocks. Says the Journal, “[This] may have just blown a hole through this most cherished of Wall Street convictions.”
What about simply the trend of earnings vs. the stock market? Well, since 1932, corporate profits have been down in 19 years. The Dow rose in 14 of those years. In 1973-74, the Dow fell 46% while earnings rose 47%. 12-month earnings peaked at the bear market low. Earnings do not drive stocks.

And in 2004, EWI's monthly Elliott Wave Financial Forecast added this chart and comment:

Earnings don’t drive stock prices. We’ve said it a thousand times and showed the history that proves the point time and again. But that’s not to say earnings don’t matter. When earnings give investors a rising sense of confidence, they can be a powerful backdrop for a downturn in stock prices. This was certainly true in 2000, as the chart shows. Peak earnings coincided with the stock market’s all-time high and stayed strong right through the third quarter before finally succumbing to the bear market in stock prices. Investors who bought stocks based on strong earnings (and the trend of higher earnings) got killed.

So if earnings don't drive the stock market's broad trend, what does? The Elliott Wave Principle says that what shapes stock market trends is how investors collectively feel about the future. Investors' mood -- or social mood -- changes before "the fundamentals" reflect that change, which is why trying to predict the markets by following the earnings reports and other "fundamentals" will often leave you puzzled. The chart above makes that clear.

Get Your FREE 8-Lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" Now! You'll get valuable lessons on what to do with your pension plan, what to do if you run a business, how to handle calling in loans and paying off debt and so much more. Learn more and get your free 8 lessons here.

Ron Paul on new bill to sabotage his audit of the Fed bill

Bob Corker and others are trying to derail the bills in both the House and Senate that call for a full audit, including monetary policy, of the Federal Reserve

Get Your 8-Lesson 'Conquer the Crash Collection' Now!

My contact over at Robert Prechter's financial analysis firm, Elliott Wave International, just told me about a free "Conquer the Crash Collection" from Prechter's New York Times best-selling book. This valuable resource includes 8 lessons on topics critical to your financial survival, including: what you should do with your pension plan, what you should do it you own a business, calling in loans and paying off debt, whether you should trust the government to protect you -- and much more. Learn more about this exciting resource, and get your free access here.

In every disaster, only a very few people prepare themselves beforehand. Think about investor enthusiasm in 2005-2007, and you'll realize it's true.

Financial analyst Robert Prechter warns that the doors to financial safety are closing all over the world. He believes prudent people need to act while they still can.

To coincide with the release of the second edition of Prechter's New York Times best-selling book, Conquer the Crash, these 8 free lessons share some of the most valuable, still-prescient knowledge from the original text.

I encourage you to learn more about Prechter's Conquer the Crash. EWI's free "Conquer the Crash Collection" is the perfect place to start.

Learn more, and get immediate access to the 8-lesson "Conquer the Crash Collection" here.

10/21/09

Gold: What's Really Behind the Record Rise, Bull or Bubble?

By Nico Isaac

When prices in a financial market go from Sea Level to Outer Space in a relatively brief time, two scenarios are at work -- and they both start with the letters “B-U.”

When a precious metal goes from being a popular long-term investment of buy-and-holders to the quick, get-away “vehicle” of day-traders, two scenarios are at work -- and they both start with letters “B-U.”

And when the majority of mainstream pundits see a "new paradigm" in which prices continue to rise indefinitely, two scenarios are at work – and, you guessed it, they both start with the letters “B-U.”

Enter: the recent Gold Rush of 2009, when ALL of the above conditions apply. Everyone from hedge funds to housewives now hustle to hitch their asset wagon to the rising gold star. Which begs this question: Which of the possible two scenarios are at work: B-U-ll
--- Or B-U-bble?

Here’s the difference: A genuine bull market is driven by a self-sustaining internal dynamic that's reflected by a host of technical indicators. A Bubble, on the other hand, is the result of untenable psychology that could shift at any moment and bring prices plummeting down.

For long-term forecasts and more in-depth, historical analysis for precious metals, download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

It goes without saying into which category the mainstream experts put Gold: namely, a new bull market that has years, if not decades more to soar. “Gold Will Hit $2,000 an ounce,” reads an October 8 Market Watch. And -- “Gold Has More Upside… The metal’s bull run is just getting started,” adds a same day Barron’s.

I found hundreds of news items which agree about the long-term potential for gold’s uptrend. But not a single one could tell me why the rally would continue, other than because the experts say so.
To know whether a diamond is real, it must cut glass. And, to know whether the bull market in gold is real, it must encompass at least one of these FOUR traits:

A surge in demand that outpaces supply
A falling stock market, which raises the “safe haven” appeal of precious metals.
A real (not imagined) threat of inflation
An increase in value relative to major foreign currencies

Right now, the Gold market can NOT check off a single one of these items. Case in point:

Supply: Demand for gold from jewelry makers – which comprises 60%-70% of the market – has plummeted to its lowest level in 20 years.

“Safe haven” appeal: From its March 2009 bottom, the U.S. stock market has soared 50% right alongside rallying gold prices.

Inflation: As the October 2009 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) notes: An increase in money supply is only inflationary if it is used to RAISE the total amount of credit. This is NOT happening, as both bank credit and consumer credit levels are contracting for the first time since World War II.

A gold rally in other currencies: Again, the October 2009 EWFF presents the following close-up of Spot Gold prices VERSUS Gold denominated in foreign currencies such as the Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, the euro, franc, pound, and yen since 2007.

(click chart to expand)

The major non-confirmation between these two markets is clear, as is the overlying message: IF demand for gold truly outweighed supply, then its value as measured in other currencies would increase.

The rise in gold is primarily the result of speculation and a falling U.S. dollar. These are exactly the “untenable” forces that contribute to a Bubble, not a genuine Bull market. The difference is only a matter of time.
For long-term forecasts and more in-depth, historical analysis for precious metals, download Prechter’s FREE 40-page eBook on Gold and Silver.

10/15/09

Moving Stops Up on S&P 500

In the last S&P 500 post I had moved trailing stop/loss orders for current long positions from 978.50 to 991.96. I also stated that If prices break above 1069.62, I would move stops up to the turning point of the short term downtrend that was occurring at that time. The S&P 500 price did break above 1069.62 without taking out the stop at 991.96, so the trailing stop has been moved up to 1019.94, or one point below the low of the recent short term correction to trend.

(charts are expanded by clicking on them)

As was noted in the last S&P 500 post, while I am following this trend for profit, I currently believe it to be a bear market rally that will lead to lows reaching below those that occurred during March of this year. You can read the last post for more on that and for my current Elliott Wave count. If this secular bearish opinion is proven wrong by future action of the market, then following the trend will keep us on the profitable side of things. If the expectation of a larger secular bear being still underway is proven correct, then it will not be a surprise and we will also attempt to be on the correct side of that profitable trend to the downside.

A break below the new stop level will move me to a neutral position, from which I will be looking towards opportunities on the short side of the market.

10/14/09

How to Prepare for the Coming Crash and Preserve Your Wealth; New Edition of Conquer the Crash to Be Released in Late October

October 14, 2009

Bob Prechter first released Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression during a stock-market high in 2002, and it quickly became a New York Times–bestseller. Now he has updated the book with 188 new pages for a second edition, and it looks like it, too, will be published near a stock-market high. John Wiley & Sons plans to publish the new edition in late October. Visit Elliott Wave International for information on how to pre-order the new edition from major online retailers.

As was widely reported in the dark days of late February and early March 2009, Prechter called for the start of the biggest stock market rally since the 2007 high. Since then, the S&P has soared more than 60 percent in just six months to reach his target zone of 1000-1100. This is one reason why he decided to release his second edition now.
The first edition, which was published in early 2002, was "on the mark" with regard to our current economic environment -- so much so that it's uncanny. Prechter’s message has been good for investors who kept their money safe and for speculators who profited from declines. And he still expects a great buying opportunity ahead for those who can keep their money safe until it arrives. Here is a short list of some of the accurate predictions he made in 2002 that have come to fruition:

Credit Deflation

"Usually the culprit behind [simultaneous stock and real estate] declines is a credit deflation. If there were ever a time we were poised for such a decline, it is now." Chapter 16

Bailout Schemes

“If [governments] leap unwisely into bailout schemes, they will risk damaging the integrity of their own debt, triggering a fall in its price. Either way … deflation will put the brakes on their actions.” Chapter 32

Banking and Insurance Stocks

“We will see stocks going down 90 percent and more … [and] bank and insurance company failures….” Chapter 14

Collateralized Securities

"Banks and mortgage companies … have issued $6 trillion worth of [securitized loans]…. In a major economic downturn, this credit structure will implode." Chapter 19

Derivatives

“Leveraged derivatives pose one of the greatest risks to banks….” Chapter 19

Mortgage-Backed Securities

"Major financial institutions actually invest in huge packages of … mortgages, an investment that they and their clients (which may include you) will surely regret…. Chapter 16

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

“Investors in these companies’ stocks and bonds will be just as surprised when [Fannie and Freddie's] stock prices and bond ratings collapse.” Chapter 25

Banks

“Banks are not just lent to the hilt, they’re past it. In a fearful market, liquidity even on these so called ‘securities’ [corporate, municipal, and mortgage-backed bonds] will dry up.”… One expert advises, ‘The larger, more diversified banks at this point are the safer place to be.' That assertion will surely be severely tested….” Chapter 19

Insurance Companies
“The values of insurance company holdings, from stocks to bonds to real estate (and probably including junk bonds as well), will be falling precipitously…. As the values of most investments fall, the value of insurance companies’ portfolios will fall…. When insurance companies implode, they file for bankruptcy…." Chapters 15, 24

Real Estate

"What screams 'bubble' – giant, historic bubble – in real estate today is the system-wide extension of massive amounts of credit to finance property purchases…. [People] have been taking out home equity loans so they can buy stocks and TVs and cars…. This widespread practice is brewing a terrible disaster.” Chapter 16

Rating Services

“Most rating services will not see it coming.” Chapter 25

Political Leaders
“A leader does not control his country’s economy, but the economy mightily controls his image.” Chapter 27

Short-Selling Ban

“In a bear market, bullish investors always come to believe that short sellers are 'driving the market down'…. Sometimes authorities outlaw short selling. In doing so, they remove the one class of investors that must buy.” Chapter 20

Psychological Change
“When the social mood trend changes from optimism to pessimism, creditors, debtors, producers and consumers change their primary orientation from expansion to conservation....” Chapter 9

Confidence

“Confidence has probably reached its limit. A multi-decade deceleration in the U.S. economy … will soon stress debtors’ ability to pay…. Total credit will contract, so bank deposits will contract, so the supply of money will contract….” Chapter 11

Falling Tax Receipts
"Governments … spend and borrow throughout the good times and find themselves strapped in bad times, when tax receipts fall." Chapter 32

"Retirement programs such as Social Security in the U.S. are wealth-transfer schemes, not funded insurance, so they rely upon the government’s tax receipts. Likewise, Medicaid is a federally subsidized state-funded health insurance program, and as such, it relies upon transfers of states’ tax receipts. When people’s earnings collapse in a depression, so does the amount of taxes paid, which forces the value of wealth transfers downward." Chapter 32

"The tax receipts that pay for roads, police and jails, fire departments, trash pickup, emergency (911) monitoring, water systems and so on will fall to such low levels that services will be restricted." Chapter 32

For more information on the new second edition of Conquer the Crash, visit Elliott Wave International. Bob Prechter has added 188 new pages of critical information to his New York Times bestseller.

Susan C. Walker writes for Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting and technical analysis company.

Read the 2nd Edition of the Bestseller that Forecast the Meltdown

Mark Hulbert's Sept. 11, 2009, column for MarketWatch.com says, Robert Prechter "came the closest … to forecasting what was about to take place." One thing the noted financial columnist left out was that many of Prechter's forecasts still lie in the future. The long-awaited second edition of Prechter's bestseller, Conquer the Crash, is finally here! Prudent investors should read his prescient insights, what he believes is still ahead and what you can do to protect your wealth today. Learn more about the special pre-order offer for Robert Prechter's bestseller, Conquer the Crash, Second Edition.

Greetings,

Today's financial and economic tribulations were a long time in the making. Many people ask, "Why didn't someone see it coming?"

But a New York Times bestselling book did see it coming. More than 100,000 people read it in time to protect their wealth.

They read this about real estate:

What screams 'bubble' – giant, historic bubble – in real estate today is the system-wide extension of massive amounts of credit to finance property purchases.... Many people have been rushing to borrow the last pennies possible on their homes. They have been taking out home equity loans so they can buy stocks and TVs and cars and whatever else their hearts desire at the moment. This widespread practice is brewing a terrible disaster.

And this about stocks:

...the number one precaution to take at the start of a deflationary crash is to make sure that your investment capital is not invested in stocks, stock mutual funds, stock index futures or any other equity-based investment.

About Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

Investors in these companies’ stocks and bonds will be just as surprised when [Fannie and Freddie's] stock prices and bond ratings collapse. Most rating services will not see it coming.

About junk bonds:

Don't think you will be safe buying bonds rated BBB or above. If you have invested in municipal bonds, consumer debt, real estate debt, junk bonds or anything other than top-grade paper, sell it at today’s lofty prices.

All these observations are from Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash, first published in early 2002, when the Dow was above 10,000 and the financial world was partying around-the-clock. Fast forward to today: The average U.S. homeowner has suffered a decline of 30% to 40% in property value. Stocks and commodities had their biggest fall since 1929-1932. Fannie Mae is a zombie corporation under the government’s protection.

If Prechter thought a whole new book would help, he'd have written one. But Conquer the Crash is a book-length forecast that's still coming true-- only some of the future has caught up with the specific predictions he published back then. There is much more to come. And that means more danger but also great opportunity.

The same authorities who said "the worst can't happen" now claim that "the worst is over." That's one of the many reasons why Prechter is choosing now to put out a second edition of Conquer the Crash.

Conquer the Crash, Second Edition, offers you 188 new pages (480 pages total) expanding Prechter’s unique deflationary argument and escorting the reader through the stock market’s manic climb to the 2007 peak. (If you think you remember this period, wait till you read Prechter’s description.) And it still includes all the original forecasts and recommendations that make the book as compelling and as relevant as the day it published.

In every disaster, only a very few people prepare themselves beforehand. Think about investor enthusiasm in 2005-2008, and you'll realize it's true. Even fewer people will be ready for the soon-approaching, next leg down of the unfolding depression.

Prechter warns that the doors to financial safety are closing all over the world. Prudent people need to act while they still can.

We couldn't agree more. This book is a must-read.

Learn more about the special pre-order offer for Robert Prechter's bestseller, Conquer the Crash, Second Edition.

10/9/09

Death of the Dollar, Again: Before You Mourn, See This Chart

October 9, 2009

The following article is based on analysis from Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. For more insights from Robert Prechter, download the 75-page eBook Independent Investor eBook. It’s a compilation of some of the New York Times bestselling author’s writings that challenge conventional financial market assumptions. Visit Elliott Wave International to download the eBook, free.

By Nico Isaac

If you want the latest news on the U.S. Dollar Index, try a search under its new ticker symbol, RIP. -- as in, "rest in peace." Let the record show: In the early morning hours of Tuesday, October 6, the mainstream financial community officially declared "The Demise of the Dollar" (The Independent).
The "coroner's report" cites these details as the causes of death:

An alleged (and later denied) secret meeting among leaders of certain Arab States, China, Russia, and France which aimed for the immediate discontinuation of oil trading in U.S. dollars.
And, an open statement from one senior United Nations official that proposed the dollar be replaced as the world's reserve currency.

In the words of a recent Washington Post story: "The growing international chorus wants the dollar replaced... a move that would end the greenback's six-decades of global dominance."

And with that, the line between negative sentiment -- AND -- "EXTREME" negative sentiment was crossed. It occurs when the beliefs about a market lean so far over in one direction, that the boat investors are sitting in is about to tip over... Just like the last time.

Case in point: Spring 2008. The U.S. dollar stood at an all-time record low against the euro after plunging more than 40% in value. And, according to the usual experts, the greenback was "dead"-set to meet its maker. On this, these news items from early 2008 say plenty:

"The dollar is a terribly flawed currency and its days are numbered." (Wall Street Journal quote)
"It's basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion based on the dollar as the world's reserve currency." (George Soros at the World Economic Forum)
"Greenback is losing Global Appeal... the 'Almighty' Dollar is Gone." (Associated Press)

YET -- from its March 2008 bottom, the U.S. dollar came back to life with a vengeance, soaring in a one-year long winning streak to multi-year highs. In the most current Elliott Wave Theorist (published September 15, 2009), Bob Prechter presents the following close-up of the Dollar Index since that trend-turning bottom. (some Elliott wave labels have been removed for this publication)

At a measly 6% bulls, the bearish dollar boat tipped over. The situation today is even more remarkable: The percentage of bulls is lower, at 3-4%, while the dollar's value is higher than the March 2008 level.

It's crucial to understand that markets don't necessarily respond to sentiment extremes immediately. But, such extremes do indicate exhaustion of the trend -- which is usually the opposite of what the mainstream expects.

10/5/09

Q&A With Robert Prechter: Why Technical Analysis Beats Out Fundamental Analysis

By Elliott Wave International

As the major stock markets turned down in late 2007 and then started to rally in March 2009, many people who believed in fundamental analysis have begun to question its validity.

Famed technical analyst and Elliott wave expert Robert Prechter has long called for the bear market we are now in the midst of. (He views the rally of 2009 to be a bear-market rally not the beginning of a new bull market.) But over the years, his methods of technical analysis have been criticized. Here are his most succinct arguments as to why wave analysis outdoes competing forms of analysis.

Learn the Wave Principle and Other Forms of Technical Analysis. Elliott Wave International has just released The Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook. This FREE 50-page ebook is dedicated solely to teaching reformed fundamentals followers to incorporate technical analysis into their own investing decisions. Learn more and download your free copy here.

*****
Excerpted from Prechter's Perspective, re-issued 2004

Question: Suppose everyone agreed, "The Wave Principle is not always right, but it really is the answer"?

Robert Prechter: Well, let me begin my answer with a quote from a national financial magazine dated October 1977. "Over the last few years, the Wave Principle has gathered too much of a following and, therefore, it has less value today. Almost invariably, you can write off a technique when it gets too much of a following." How does this statement look in light of the decade that followed it? "Elliott" had one of its greatest successes. Like the Energizer Bunny, it keeps going and going. And I believe its next success will be its biggest ever. The Principle itself is undoubtedly on an upward spiral of acceptance: three steps forward and two steps back.

Now let's suppose that a large number of educated people accepted the Wave Principle, which is not an impossible idea for, say, a thousand years from now. There would still be room for differences of opinion on the market and the future. And there are countless other factors. Even people who practice the craft don't necessarily take action when they get a signal. Unconscious doubt and worry often foil people's actions. Very few traders have the emotional strength to turn even good analysis into profits.

Q: The Wave Principle is intrinsically contrarian. Does it have some built-in defense against becoming the consensus?

RP: I think so. The Wave Principle is a description of natural human behavior. This is what human beings are; this is part of their nature -- how they behave. In order for markets to continue to go through these stages, a part of human nature must be to believe that such theories of mass psychology are incapable of being true -- that is, something not worth examining. They must be primed to accept bullish arguments at tops and bearish arguments at bottoms. That means they have to be ever open to bogus theories of market behavior. How else will they create the patterns that fear, greed and hope produce?

Q: How big is the pool of analysts who rely on the Wave Principle?

RP: I think there are quite a few people who are proficient in applying Elliott to past and present markets, say, perhaps 1% of all technical analysts, which is a pretty good number of people, I suppose. A lot of those are my subscribers, and they learned it through studying the Theorist. However, as far as the number of people proficient at applying the Wave Principle for forecasting market turns, which is significantly more difficult than applying it in real time, I think there are very few.

Q: This has been the basis of some criticism. To quote one critic, "relying on arcane methods does have one advantage. Interpreting the linear squiggles is left in the hands of the major heir to Elliott's work." How do you respond to those who contend that the complexity of the theory is a cover that allows you to retain the Wave Principle as your personal theory?

RP: With regard to any supposed self-serving secrecy, not only did I co-author a book on how to apply the Wave Principle, as well as reprint Elliott's writings against protest from practitioners, but also I continually go into great -- some might say excruciating -- detail in each issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist explaining exactly what I think the market has done and will do, and why I think it. If there is any market letter that has educated potential competitors, it is mine. The reason is that the study of markets is more important to me than exclusivity, secrecy or power.

Q: Another common approach critics take when they try to dismiss Elliott as bunk is to refer to you as a mystic or a numerologist.

RP: A mystic believe in things for which there is no evidence, only desire. I do not consider myself to be a mystic at all. My approach is objective. The empirical basis of Elliott's discovery speaks to that fact. So do the results of the trading competition [Editor's note: Bob Prechter won the Trading Championship in options in 1984 with a stunning 444% gain. The next closest competitor showed an 84% gain.] Not once during any month since the independent rating services have been following market timers has a timer using a numerological approach such as "Gann" analysis ever placed in the top 10 rankings. Just as would be expected, such methods don't work!

The true mystics are those who believe, for instance, that current economic performance is a basis upon which to predict stock market prices. There is no evidence for it. They just feel comfortable with the idea, so they espouse it.

Q: So you say that the challenge to validity is on the other side?

RP: You're darn right, it is. I am no longer at the point where I feel that I have to justify the objectivity of the Wave Principle. I think the results have done that. Technical analysis is entirely rational and has proved itself. If someone goes back and looks at the record of Elliott wave writers over the decades, he will find a track record of forecasting success that is well beyond a random result of chance. If you can do that, the ball is in the other guy's court. It's up to him to show that this is luck or something. What's more, the only challenge to a theory is a better theory, and I haven't seen a contender yet.

Q: You don't feel that you have been effectively challenged by any fundamental approaches?

RP: I think there's a place for fundamental analysis of individual companies, but I am firmly convinced that you can make a very rational argument showing that fundamental analysis applied to overall market timing is like reading the entrails of goats. In fact, I presented such a critique in The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior. If you think my ideas as presented here are controversial, just read Chapter 19 of that book.

10/2/09

S&P 500 Update: between two key levels again

My last post on the S&P 500 is found by clicking here.

In that post, the trend had broken upwards and trailing stops were moved upwards in the direction of trend (never move stops in the opposite direction of trend) from 978.50 to 991.96. This stop level remains. As long as prices remain above 991.96, I will consider the intermediate term trend to be up. If 991.96 is broken to the downside, then I will consider the trend neutral to down. Such a break below 991.96 would lead me to close long positions while assessing the situation further for possible initiation of short postions.

If prices break above 1069.62, the uptrend will be further confirmed. If this breakout occurs, I will be moving trailing stops to the level above 991.96 that leads to the end to the current short term downtrend.

It is important for me to continue to reiterate that while I am following this trend to the upside, I believe it to be a bear market rally. I believe the major long-term or secular risks remain to the downside.

(charts can be expanded by clicking on them)

The chart and comments above provide very simple and easy to manage entry and exit components for a trend following approach to participating for profit in the market's major trends. Risk management is the missing component. I recommend risking between 1% and 2% of capital between stop and entry of your positions. To be clear, it works like this: you know your stop-loss level before you put the position on, you then know the level of planned entry. The size of your position should be equal to a 1% to 2% loss to your account if the stop-loss level is broken against your planned position. The 1% to 2% level is not a measure of how much capital is utilized. It is a measure of how much capital is risked on the venture we call a trade. Using 5% would be very aggressive, and should not be used by most traders and investors. Above 5% will increase the chances of eventual ruin of the account down the road, because we simply will take some losses and even strings of losses in this business.

In the chart and comments below a more in depth approach to locating and participating in the major market trends is presented. I am often asked in private e-mails and conversations what my Elliott Wave opinion of the market is. The chart below shows my top count opinion. There is also one notation of the next best alternate Elliott count that I would be looking at if the stop mentioned above was taken out to the downside.

(charts can be expanded by clicking on them)

It should be noted that the forecast outlined in the chart and Elliott Wave analysis above is not a result of any presumed clairvoyance. It is fallible, and such analysis should never be viewed as a perfect road map to the future. No human is capable of producing that. What is represented is a procedural practice of measuring probabilities. It is definitely possible for the current wave [2] to form into more complex patterns, such is often the case with corrective waves. We are unable to know if that is going to happen in advance, so the most simple of the main possibilities is presented until the market action takes that scenario off the table and therefore leaves the others to choose from. Contrary to popular opinion, properly applied Elliott Wave analysis is often just another form of price trend following. Price action is required to confirm Elliott counts, and price action leads to the negation of counts.

For more on the Wave Principle, click here

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