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12/29/09

Tightening Stop on S&P 500, 12/29/09

Dec 17th was the date of the last S&P 500 post.  You can find that here.   In that post I said that if prices moved above the consolidation high of 1119.13, exit orders (stops) would be moved up to the lower boundary of that consolidation.  Prices have penetrated 1119.13.  Instead of moving stops up to 1083.73, I am moving them up to 1093.87.  On 12/18 prices reversed from downside pressure before ever actually testing the lower consolidation support level.  The result was a new trend high on 12/22.  I am now using the reversal low that preceded the new breakout high as the current level of intermediate term market support.  Stops are at 1093.87.     


Aggressive traders may want to use the new stop level not just as an exit, but as a stop-and-reverse to sell short signal.  More patient and conservative traders may want to wait and let a downtrend establish itself before trying to hop onto it's potential for continuation.  


As has been mentioned on several occasions, I have a bearish outlook on the long term for the market.  No, this is not new.  I have been bearish on the long term since before the major peak in 2000 back when having that view meant being considered crazy.  Thank you Bob Prechter for all of your work and writings (see his company's advertisement links on this site)!  I do not think the secular bear market is complete, but I am not permanently bearish.  When I believe it to be complete I will become bullish on the long term.  Regardless, I am willing the trade price trends up or down in the meantime in order to let the market lead me for profit. 

One of the major tools I use in developing a larger market outlook is Elliott Wave analysis.  The chart above shows my basic Elliott Wave count for this market.  Drawn is a idealized forecast line that corresponds to the outcome predicted by this wave count.   

Before closing this post out, I want to draw a distinction that I think it is important to continue to make.  Much of what I am presenting is directed at traders and investors who are, or aspire to be, actively managing their investments or actively directing the placement of those investments with people and methodologies which are understood and objective rather than hopefully diversified.  I have said something that applies to those still hold blindly diversified securities as well though.  Before the current rally ever got underway, posts on this site speculated that it was coming.  This blog was holding sold short positions at that time and was moving stops along with the downtrend just as we are now with the current uptrend.  In those posts, I suggested that those who were still holding onto passive stock and mutual fund investments use the then expected, but not materialized, rally to liquidate and move into safe cash positions.  Wave-2 rallies have a way of fooling the crowd into thinking the wave-1 was the end of the trend rather than the beginning.   

I am in agreement with Prechter (please check out the EWI adds on this page) in the idea that normal savings accounts at your local fractional reserve outlet are, much like the current stock market, not sufficiently safe for your wealth.  Depending on what you are trying to protect, there are other options .  For detailed discussion of what you can do, read "Conquer the Crash" by Prechter.  The rally is probably almost complete.  

Happy New Year!

12/24/09

The economics of socialism does not add up; just ask Detroit

Do you want to see what is coming for the rest of the country as a result of overuse of debt, lack of savings, and government economic and monetary policy? Watch the short video below:



After decades of government subsidies, bailouts and central planning of all variety, Detroit is in ruins.  Detroit is not some isolated case.  It is the early part of the trend; a trend both major political parties are leading us down.  I'm not letting individuals off the hook.  The race to buy the most stuff, even on credit, rather than save, also set the stage for what is going on now.  Individuals learn and react faster than bureaucracies, and they are tightening up the use of credit while increasing savings when available.  However, the government is expanding use of credit.  There are clearly many points that can be made about what we are witnessing, but one that seems particularly important is the fact that socialism and all forms of central economic planning lead to disaster and ultimate failure.

12/21/09

The dollar is getting a break against the euro


For much of 2009 we heard constant rants about how the USD was being destroyed.  This is true. The dollar's purchasing power for goods and services is only worth 5% of what it was in 1913 when the Federal Reserve took over and started moving towards a fiat monetary standard.  Nonetheless, when we are trading and investing we not only have to look at the purchasing power for goods and services, we have to also measure the currency against other currencies and other assets.  

As is typically the case in financial markets, we hear the loudest shouts at the extremes right before changes in trend.  We may have recently gone through one of these trend changes in the EUR/USD.  The EUR/USD broke below a major trendline at the beginning of December.  At the very least, the uptrend (downtrend for dollar against the euro) that had been in place is consolidating.  It is also possible for larger EUR/USD downtrend (uptrend for dollar) to be emerging.  Since we primarily follow price trends here, we will let the market lead us on this.  If you are short, EUR/USD, then stops should be no higher than 1.5142 (continuation contract).  That high is 1.5137 on the March 2010 contract. 


Zooming in to look at the daily bar chart of the March 2010 contract, we see that the 5 day moving average is below the 20 day, with both tracking down.  We also see that the RSI measure of price trend velocity showed clear bearish divergences against the price uptrend that existed prior the the breakdown.  If a larger trend is emerging, it is possible for the 5 & 20 day MA's to cross back up before prices cross the prior high.  Such a scenario might be a great set up for additional short positions.  

Interest rates poised to rise?


An intermediate term trend-line in the 10-Year Bond market has been broken to the downside.  This could be the start of a new longer term downtrend.  If so, interest rates are on the way up.  Key levels are 121^050 to the upside and 114^250 to the downside.  

Although a break of the trend-line is itself indication of a resumed downtrend, a break of the lower level mentioned above should solidify a significant downtrend.  Contrarily, if prices break above 121^050, then the break in the intermediate term trend line will have been a false signal.

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Anyone who diversified their portfolios across several stocks, bonds and commodities over the past three years knows that diversification is no foolproof way to profit. The same goes for anyone who decided to buy and hold the S&P index 10 years ago -- they're 20% down even after the recent rally. Many individual stocks and commodities have performed much worse.

During the mania, when the trend was almost always up, virtually anything had a good chance to go higher. Investors ignored real safe-investment advice, because there was always someone lucking into a moon shot during the insanity. The S&P index itself – followed by the NASDAQ and other futures markets – sat at the center of the mania, and simply being in an index back then often outperformed other popular strategies. That's all over with now.

Our friends over at Elliott Wave International have just released a brand-new ebook to help you sell and fold bad investment advice for forever. EWI's 33-page Market Myths Exposed eBook takes the 10 most dangerous investment myths head on and exposes the truth about each in a way every investor can understand.

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Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

12/18/09

Individual Investors Have Jumped Into Another Fire

By Robert Prechter, CMT

The following article is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist.

First they bought into the “stocks for the long run” case and got killed. Then they jumped on the commodity bandwagon and got killed. Many investors are buying back into these very same markets, but others are running to what they perceive as safe “yields” in the municipal bond market. So far this year, individual investors have “poured a record $55 billion” (Bloomberg, 11/12) into muni bond funds, with the pace running $2b. per week in August and September; many other investors are buying munis outright. These must be the people who tell us that they can’t live without “yield” and also cannot imagine their city, county or state government going bust. But as Conquer the Crash warned and as The Elliott Wave Theorist has reiterated, the muni bond market is heading for disaster.

Municipalities have borrowed more than they can repay, they have pension liabilities that they cannot meet (up to a trillion dollars’ worth, according to Moody’s), and tax receipts are falling. The only reason that states haven’t failed yet is the so-called “stimulus package,” which took money from savers, investors and taxpayers—thereby impoverishing the people who live in the various states—and gave it to state governments to spend so they would not have to cease their profligate spending. But political pressures will eventually cut off this gravy train. In the 2010-2017 period, the muni bond market will become awash in defaults. The leap in optimism since March, which has shown up in every financial market, has fueled a retreat in muni bond yields to their lowest level since 1967 and narrowed the spread between muni bond yields and Treasuries.

This rush to buy municipal bonds is occurring right on the cusp of a dramatic decline in their values. While many individuals are loading up right at the peak so they can participate in the next major market disaster, smarter investors, such as insurance companies Allstate and Guardian Life, are getting out. Subscribers to our services, we trust, own not a single municipal IOU. Our recommendation for investors is 100 percent safety, and such a program does not include muni bonds. If you are a recent subscriber, please read the second half of Conquer the Crash as a manual on how to get your finances safe.

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Robert Prechter, Chartered Market Technician, is the founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International, author of Wall Street best-sellers Conquer the Crash and Elliott Wave Principle and editor of The Elliott Wave Theorist monthly market letter since 1979.

12/17/09

S&P 500 Trade Management

My last post regarding current trades and signals in the S&P 500 was on November 5th.  You can find that post by clicking here.  We successfully followed the prior downtrend / collapse for profit, and we have since been following the uptrend.  

On November 5th stops for long positions were moved up to the level of 1029.37.  The market has now consolidated in a small range, giving traders a new set of choices.   


(as always, clicking on the chart will expand it for better viewing)


Conservative trend following traders will want to keep the stop at 1029.37.  This is because although we might be skeptical about the ability of the market to continue upwards for very much longer, we have to recognize that the price trend itself is the final arbiter of this argument.  In order to give the trend room to breath, the 1029.37 consolidation low is a good place.  Prices have previously drawn that line in the sand for us.

More assertive trend following traders have another options though.  We have had a short term consolidation between the levels of 1119.13 and 1083.74.  Whichever way prices break from this consolidation is likely to lead to at least some short term follow through in the same direction as the break.   Therefore a break below 1083.74 would be a good place for the more assertive or aggressive investors and traders to take profits.

As is indicated on the chart, a move above the short term consolidation high of 1119.13 would indicate a continuation in the uptrend.  If this occurs, then I will be recommending all stops be moved up the 1083.74 level.  

This is not rocket science. 

Smashing Myths and Restoring Sound Money

This is a great Speech by Tom Woods regarding Sound Money and the perspective of Austrian Economics.

If Bernanke was smart he would not seek reappointment

Bernanke failed to see first part of the bubble's bursting, and if he was able to see the next phase coming he would not want to be anywhere near it.  I have no real praise for Greenspan, but at least his timing was better than helicopter Ben's (if you don't get this name, picture Ben dropping money out of an emergency helicopter).  

When the stock markets resume major downtrends Bernanke will be in the hot seat.  He promised Friedman that we would not preside over another "great contraction" before Friedman's death.  I don't think he will make good on his promise.  He will try, and that will make matters much worse and eventually lead to the final destruction of our "legal" (not lawful) money.  

Maybe I'm wrong, but I am a speculator after all.  That is what I do.  Like other entrepreneurs, I look for risk that is limited, but that has the potential for exponential profits.  Ben is a fiat monetarist, and his timing has been terrible so far.  I don't mind loosing.  Doing so on semi-regular occasion is part of this profession, but the odds seem to be in my favor on this one.  My advice to Ben would be to go off to a remote cottage somewhere, take up fishing while letting some other dupe sit in the hot seat.  If he did take my advice, we can all hope that the next dupe will not have a personal helicopter to drop newly created fiat paper "money" out of.  

12/15/09

CNBC Squawk Box Guest Host, Ron Paul Takes Everyone To Sound Money School

Part 1



Part 2



Part 3



Under the Federal Reserve system, the U.S. Dollar has lost 95%+ of its purchasing power.  Ron Paul gets it.  You can hear him talk about this in the first video.  Why would the Fed do this?  The answer is because inflating the money supply enriches those who are the first recipients of the newly created (by both keystrokes and printing press) money.  First recipients are the government and banks.  The Fed, as an arm of government, empowers government through hidden taxation.  Individuals would likely revolt if government directly taxed enough to run its bloated empire, but by doing it through increasing the money supply, they hide these additional taxes from all but the most discerning and inquisitive.  

It should be clear that those further down the financial food chain are financially injured by the fiat money policy.  Saving is discouraged while debt and spending are encouraged.  This is part of the reason why no one wanted cash in the bubble days of the late 90s and why individuals flocked to real estate later on.  Capital for investment should come from savings, but it is the savers who are injured and attacked by the central bank and its fiat money.  The legal tender laws help to lock these savers into the Fed's trap.


How does the Fed profit?  They purchase government paper (they loan the government the new money), and receive interest payments on the paper.  Where do the interest payments come from?  That, my friend is why we have an income tax.  We did not have the federal taxation on income until we needed it to pay off the privately owned, government protected monopoly on money known as the "Federal" Reserve.

As you can imagine, the end result of all of this is disaster.  Debt bubbles were formed, and they are still not fully deflated.  Malinvestments bought with the debt are not yet liquidated.  Each stimulus package and each bulk creation of new money not only prolong the problem, but also make it much worse.  In the end economic law will prevail.  Unfortunately, this means the dollar will be rejected, but first all of the assets the debt was used to purchase will be liquidated.  This includes stocks and real estate.  As of this writing, we are simply in a lull before the worst of the storm.  Unfortunately, most seem to believe the storm has passed.

12/11/09

Popular Culture and the Stock Market

Popular Culture and the Stock Market

Wall Street legend and best-selling author Robert Prechter says "You can almost hear the Dow going up and
down over the airwaves." Watch this 3-minute clip from his documentary History's Hidden Engine to see
how social mood governs movements in the stock market and trends in popular culture.
Then access his 50-page report "Popular Culture and the Stock Market" FREE.
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12/10/09

Congressman Paul Introduces the Free Competition in Currency Act

Statement of Congressman Ron Paul
United States House of Representatives

Statement Introducing the Free Competition in Currency Act


December 9, 2009
Madame Speaker, I rise to introduce the Free Competition in Currency Act of 2009.  Currency, or money, is what allows civilization to flourish.  In the absence of money, barter is the name of the game; if the farmer needs shoes, he must trade his eggs and milk to the cobbler and hope that the cobbler needs eggs and milk.  Money makes the transaction process far easier.  Rather than having to search for someone with reciprocal wants, the farmer can exchange his milk and eggs for an agreed-upon medium of exchange with which he can then purchase shoes.


This medium of exchange should satisfy certain properties:  it should be durable, that is to say, it does not wear out easily; it should be portable, that is, easily carried; it should be divisible into units usable for every-day transactions; it should be recognizable and uniform, so that one unit of money has the same properties as every other unit; it should be scarce, in the economic sense, so that the extant supply does not satisfy the wants of everyone demanding it; it should be stable, so that the value of its purchasing power does not fluctuate wildly; and it should be reproducible, so that enough units of money can be created to satisfy the needs of exchange.

Over millennia of human history, gold and silver have been the two metals that have most often satisfied these conditions, survived the market process, and gained the trust of billions of people.  Gold and silver are difficult to counterfeit, a property which ensures they will always be accepted in commerce.  It is precisely for this reason that gold and silver are anathema to governments.  A supply of gold and silver that is limited in supply by nature cannot be inflated, and thus serves as a check on the growth of government.  Without the ability to inflate the currency, governments find themselves constrained in their actions, unable to carry on wars of aggression or to appease their overtaxed citizens with bread and circuses.

At this country's founding, there was no government controlled national currency.  While the Constitution established the Congressional power of minting coins, it was not until 1792 that the US Mint was formally established.  In the meantime, Americans made do with foreign silver and gold coins.  Even after the Mint's operations got underway, foreign coins continued to circulate within the United States, and did so for several decades.

On the desk in my office I have a sign that says: “Don't steal – the government hates competition.”  Indeed, any power a government arrogates to itself, it is loathe to give back to the people.  Just as we have gone from a constitutionally-instituted national defense consisting of a limited army and navy bolstered by militias and letters of marque and reprisal, we have moved from a system of competing currencies to a government-instituted banking cartel that monopolizes the issuance of currency.  In order to reintroduce a system of competing currencies, there are three steps that must be taken to produce a legal climate favorable to competition.

The first step consists of eliminating legal tender laws.  Article I Section 10 of the Constitution forbids the States from making anything but gold and silver a legal tender in payment of debts.  States are not required to enact legal tender laws, but should they choose to, the only acceptable legal tender is gold and silver, the two precious metals that individuals throughout history and across cultures have used as currency.  However, there is nothing in the Constitution that grants the Congress the power to enact legal tender laws.  We, the Congress, have the power to coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, but not to declare a legal tender.  Yet, there is a section of US Code, 31 USC 5103, that purports to establish US coins and currency, including Federal Reserve notes, as legal tender.

Historically, legal tender laws have been used by governments to force their citizens to accept debased and devalued currency.  Gresham's Law describes this phenomenon, which can be summed up in one phrase:  bad money drives out good money.  An emperor, a king, or a dictator might mint coins with half an ounce of gold and force merchants, under pain of death, to accept them as though they contained one ounce of gold.  Each ounce of the king's gold could now be minted into two coins instead of one, so the king now had twice as much “money” to spend on building castles and raising armies.  As these legally overvalued coins circulated, the coins containing the full ounce of gold would be pulled out of circulation and hoarded.  We saw this same phenomenon happen in the mid-1960s when the US government began to mint subsidiary coinage out of copper and nickel rather than silver.  The copper and nickel coins were legally overvalued, the silver coins undervalued in relation, and silver coins vanished from circulation.

These actions also give rise to the most pernicious effects of inflation.  Most of the merchants and peasants who received this devalued currency felt the full effects of inflation, the rise in prices and the lowered standard of living, before they received any of the new currency.  By the time they received the new currency, prices had long since doubled, and the new currency they received would give them no benefit.

In the absence of legal tender laws, Gresham's Law no longer holds.  If people are free to reject debased currency, and instead demand sound money, sound money will gradually return to use in society.  Merchants would have been free to reject the king's coin and accept only coins containing full metal weight.

The second step to reestablishing competing currencies is to eliminate laws that prohibit the operation of private mints.  One private enterprise which attempted to popularize the use of precious metal coins was Liberty Services, the creators of the Liberty Dollar.  Evidently the government felt threatened, as Liberty Dollars had all their precious metal coins seized by the FBI and Secret Service in November of 2007.  Of course, not all of these coins were owned by Liberty Services, as many were held in trust as backing for silver and gold certificates which Liberty Services issued.  None of this matters, of course, to the government, which hates competition.  The responsibility to protect contracts is of no interest to the government.

The sections of US Code which Liberty Services is accused of violating are erroneously considered to be anti-counterfeiting statutes, when in fact their purpose was to shut down private mints that had been operating in California.  California was awash in gold in the aftermath of the 1849 gold rush, yet had no US Mint to mint coinage.  There was not enough foreign coinage circulating in California either, so private mints stepped into the breech to provide their own coins.  As was to become the case in other industries during the Progressive era, the private mints were eventually accused of circulating debased (substandard) coinage, and with the supposed aim of providing government-sanctioned regulation and a government guarantee of purity, the 1864 Coinage Act was passed, which banned private mints from producing their own coins for circulation as currency. 

The final step to ensuring competing currencies is to eliminate capital gains and sales taxes on gold and silver coins.  Under current federal law, coins are considered collectibles, and are liable for capital gains taxes.  Short-term capital gains rates are at income tax levels, up to 35 percent, while long-term capital gains taxes are assessed at the collectibles rate of 28 percent.  Furthermore, these taxes actually tax monetary debasement.  As the dollar weakens, the nominal dollar value of gold increases.  The purchasing power of gold may remain relatively constant, but as the nominal dollar value increases, the federal government considers this an increase in wealth, and taxes accordingly.  Thus, the more the dollar is debased, the more capital gains taxes must be paid on holdings of gold and other precious metals.

Just as pernicious are the sales and use taxes which are assessed on gold and silver at the state level in many states.  Imagine having to pay sales tax at the bank every time you change a $10 bill for a roll of quarters to do laundry.  Inflation is a pernicious tax on the value of money, but even the official numbers, which are massaged downwards, are only on the order of 4% per year.  Sales taxes in many states can take away 8% or more on every single transaction in which consumers wish to convert their Federal Reserve Notes into gold or silver.

In conclusion, Madame Speaker, allowing for competing currencies will allow market participants to choose a currency that suits their needs, rather than the needs of the government.  The prospect of American citizens turning away from the dollar towards alternate currencies will provide the necessary impetus to the US government to regain control of the dollar and halt its downward spiral.  Restoring soundness to the dollar will remove the government's ability and incentive to inflate the currency, and keep us from launching unconstitutional wars that burden our economy to excess.  With a sound currency, everyone is better off, not just those who control the monetary system.  I urge my colleagues to consider the redevelopment of a system of competing currencies and cosponsor the Free Competition in Currency Act.

>>
Original Link Here

12/8/09

Free Report: How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups

Our friends at Elliott Wave International, the world’s largest market forecasting firm, have just updated their free report, How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups. With thousands of downloads, “Bar Patterns” has always been a huge hit with traders. But now it’s been packed with even more ways you can use common bar patterns to spot high-probability trading opportunities: 30 charts across 15 pages!
Don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn simple new ways to spot valuable trade setups in the charts you view every day.

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private around the world.

12/7/09

The Incredible Bread Machine

This movie is about economic freedom. Austrian Economist Murray Rothbard has a cameo appearance. I found this at www.mises.org.




The Principle of Nonaggression, and how it applies to economics (human action) is highlighted in the film.

12/4/09

Calculation and Socialism

A little weekend watching from the good folks over at the Mises Institute, www.mises.org:

If You Think the Past Decade Was Bad For Stocks, Wait Till You See This

The major stock indexes are the wrong place to look

By Robert Folsom

A well-known business magazine recently published a story with this headline:
Stocks: The "Loss" Decade
A disastrous ten years for the stock market ends in just a month. Will the turning of a new decade change investors' luck?
One sentence from the story itself tells you most of what you need to know: "The ten years since Y2K are on track to produce the worst total returns for investors since the 1930s."
Of course, no one should really be surprised by a story that says the stock indexes did poorly over the past decade. That's not news. The facts in the article more or less repeat what our own Elliott Wave Financial Forecast reported last March, complete with this chart:
The proof of the market is in its charts. Professional market technicians know something you don't. A solid grasp of the most successful technical analysis methods can help you cut through the hype and give you the big-picture, unbiased perspective you need now more than ever. You can now download a FREE 50-page Technical Analysis Handbook from the largest independent technical analysis provider in the world. Learn more about technical analysis, and download your free 50-page ebook here.
S&P Chart
It's safe to say that this business magazine article is the first of many the media will run before the year's end, as part of their "decade wrap-up" stories. And like this story, most or all those like will share the same basic assumption: stock investors did poorly because the stock indexes did poorly.
And that assumption, dear reader, is erroneous. The truth is far uglier.
Here's what I mean. If you want to know how real stock investors really behave, the major stock indexes are the wrong place to look. Published results from firms like Dalbar and Vanguard consistently show that, over the past 25 years, individual investors and mutual fund shareholders have had average returns that are half (at best) of the annual returns of the broader stock market.
So, for example, in 20 years from Jan. 1, 1989 through Dec. 31, 2008, the S&P 500 showed a 8.35% gain (Dalbar). Over that same period, equity investors showed a 1.87% gain. And if you include the 2.89% inflation rate in those years, investors show a 1.02% loss.
You can shift to a timeframe which excludes the bear market that started in 2007, but it doesn't change the basic story. From January 1984 though December 2002, the Dalbar data shows that equity investors earned an annual average of 2.6%, vs. the S&P 500's 12.2% annual average. The annual inflation rate for period was 3.14%.
What's more, similar studies and surveys also show that most investors are overconfident in the decisions they make. Put another way, they don't even know that they are their own worst enemy.
It can be different for you. Market prices move in recognizable patterns: Those patterns can also reveal specific price levels that help confirm the direction of the trend, or identify the time to step aside. Respecting the price, pattern and trend is the first step toward discipline, instead of yielding to emotions.
The proof of the market is in its charts. Professional market technicians know something you don't. A solid grasp of the most successful technical analysis methods can help you cut through the hype and give you the big-picture, unbiased perspective you need now more than ever. You can now download a FREE 50-page Technical Analysis Handbook from the largest independent technical analysis provider in the world. Learn more about technical analysis, and download your free 50-page ebook here.

Robert Folsom is a financial writer and editor for Elliott Wave International. He has covered politics, popular culture, economics and the financial markets for two decades, via print, radio and the Internet. Robert earned his degree in political science from Columbia University in 1985.

Disclaimer:

Please note that the information published on this site is not official trading or investing advice. This site is for entertainment purposes and discussion. At no time is this site or its author making specific recommendations for any specific person. At no time may a reader be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, including the possibility to lose more than initial margin funds.