Swiss Franc hits record highs.
Clearly, Swiss Franc futures remain in a long term uptrend.
Intermediate term trend in Swiss Franc futures continues its uptrend. In fact, today's new high required I update the parallel trend lines.
Both weekly and daily moving average envelops are in uptrend mode.
Dynamic Trailing Stop remains in uptrend mode on the weekly bar chart, and has recently returned to uptrend mode on the daily bar chart.
ADX on the weekly bar chart continues to register trending action. On the daily bar chart, ADX is starting to register trending action again.
At the time of this posting, 1 USD = 0.85279 CHF.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold
Intermediate Term: Hold
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
Utah and other states start looking at Gold and Silver as legal tender.
One of the trendlines has been tested. Silver is still in a long term uptrend for now.
Silver's intermediate term trend is neutral after breaking out of an uptrend and then, more recently, breaking back out of an intermediate term downtrend.
Silver's weekly moving average envelop is up to neutral, depending on your interpretation. The daily bar MA envelop has recently moved back into positive territory.
RSI on the weekly bar chart is coming off support for the bullish range. RSI on the daily bar chart has moved above one level of resistance and into neutral territory, where it is now approaching another possible resistance area.
The Dynamic Trailing Stop is still in downtrend mode on the weekly bar chart, but has reentered uptrend mode on the daily bar chart.
ADX registers non-trending action on both charts right now.
Current long term Elliott Wave interpretation of Silver shown on chart above.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
Goldman Sachs has lowered year-end 2011 S&P 500 forecast to 1,450. I don't trade off of information like that, but just thought it might be interesting to someone out there.
Long term uptrend still intact.
The intermediate term has been a mess lately. Based on today's action, which we should realize is a pre-holiday session, it looks like the intermediate term downtrend might possibly be ending.
For the intermediate term time frame, we will mostly be watching to see if previous high and low turning points are breached for our next clue.
Moving average envelopes: Weekly remains in uptrend mode; daily remains in downtrend mode.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in uptrend mode on the weekly bar chart, after having recently whipped in and out of downtrend mode. On the daily bar chart, DTS is in downtrend mode.
ADX / DMI on the weekly bar chart currently registers non-trending action.
ADX has turned up recently on the daily bar chart, registering what has become an intermediate term downtrend. However, -DMI and +DMI are starting to converge again.
Although I consider a moderate new pattern high above 1371 in the S&P 500 to be fairly likely, my top Elliott Wave count continues to be extremely bearish for the long term.
While I may follow price action to the upside, should such price action emerge from here, I will do so with the implications of the wave count above in mind. Risk management and exit strategies are always important.
Long term velocity divergences are still present, as seen in the momentum indicators below the price chart.
Complacent VIX = probably not a good time to buy long-term buy-and-hope positions in the stock market.
Put/Call still looking fairly neutral.
Current Stance
Long Term:
1) Sell to go Flat if you are the buy-and-hold type that does not keep exit stops in place.
2) Hold if you have stops and risk management in place in order to follow the trend.
Intermediate Term:
Flat
Short Term:
The semi-automated short-term system I am currently working with has been taking sell short orders this past week, but this alignment can change more frequently than blog posts.
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
The EURO is at a record low vs the Swiss Franc.
I continue to believe the EURO to most likely be in a long term distribution pattern.
Intermediate term trend is currently down in EURO futures.
Weekly bar moving average envelope is still in uptrend for EURO. Daily bar moving average envelope in downtrend for EURO.
RSI on weekly bar chart is still looking for possible support in uptrend territory, while daily bar RSI is approaching resistance in downtrend territory.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in downtrend mode on both the weekly and daily bar charts.
ADX continues to indicate non-trending action on both time frames. While the ADX is moving slightly higher on the daily bar, the -DMI is negatively diverging against the recent downtrending action.
Top Elliott Wave count for EURO continue to paint a very bearish long term picture.
Current Stance
Long Term: Sell
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
Gold has risen during recent trading sessions. According to WSJ, this is due to demand for safe-haven assets. I don't know if you can trade off a story or news report like that, so let's look at price charts to see if we can uncover any new trade worthy information.
Long term trend in the yellow metal is still up.
After recently violating the intermediate term uptrend lines, Gold Futures are now in a neutral or sideways range. We will just have to see which way they break.
The moving average envelope on the weekly bar chart remains in uptrend mode.
On the daily bar chart, the moving average envelope is in neutral territory after teasing with downtrend range.
RSI does not give me many big clues right now, but on the daily bar chart we can see that it is now back up into uptrend range, coming from neutral. To me, this adds to the idea of mixed signals for the intermediate term.
Dynamic Trailing Stop on the weekly chart continues to show an uptrend. On the daily bar chart, DTS has been showing a downtrend, but has recently moved back into uptrend territory.
ADX / DMI on the weekly bar chart has diverged somewhat, but is still in trending mode. On the daily bar chart, ADX / DMI continues to register non-trending action.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
I'm sad to hear of the death of CNBC anchor Mark Haines.
For some time I have not really watched the financial news (or TV at all) as part of my trading regimen or information flow, but I do remember Mark Haines.
Just like many in my generation, when interest in the markets first hit me, CNBC appeared on my radar. I remember Mark Haines on the morning show "Squawk Box" back then. Haines was always pretty witty if I remember correctly.
Although I rarely watch TV anymore, it will be strange to see CNBC without Mark whenever I do turn it on again. Prayers and sympathies go to his family. I can also empathize with them, having lost my own father recently.
It looks like we are not the only ones who have been fans of holding and using the Swiss Franc.
Long term trend in Swiss Franc futures remains up.
Intermediate trend in Swiss Franc futures still holding uptrend.
Weekly moving average envelope is still in uptrend mode.
Daily moving average envelope is in neutral territory.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in uptrend mode on the weekly bar chart, while being in downtrend mode on the daily bar chart.
ADX on the weekly bar is starting to show a little weakness in the positive DMI line, but still registering trending action. On the daily bar chart, ADX is a different story, registering non-trending action.
USDCHF cross rate:
At the time of this posting, 1 USD = 0.87967 CHF.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold
Intermediate Term: Hold
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
According to the AP, Silver and Gold are to be legal currency in the state of Utah.
Silver is still testing and riding one of the parallel trendlines drawn on the weekly bar chart.
Silver is currently breaking above the intermediate term down trending parallel lines drawn on the daily bar chart.
Price action and time have still not convinced the moving average envelopes on the weekly bar chart to give a sell signal for Silver.
Daily bar moving average envelopes are another story.
While RSI on the weekly bar chart is possibly trying to find some support near the uptrend zone, RSI on the daily bar chart seems to be hitting resistance in the downtrend zone.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in downtrend mode on both the weekly and daily bar charts.
ADX continues to show non-trending action in both time frames.
Top long term Elliott Wave interpretation continues to be bullish on Silver.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
As part of the links on the right side of this blog is a link to a site where a chart of mutual fund cash levels is kept. I found this chart some time ago and visit it probably on a monthly basis.
If you are of the opinion that the stock market is NOT about to embark on a new major bear market swing, this chart will argue against you. This chart indeed paints a bearish picture. Currently, cash levels at mutual funds are below 4% and have been declining as the market has been rallying.
You have to see the chart to get a good long term perspective of the psychology involved here. These levels are at multi-decade lows. In other words the bear market swings during the past ten years did very very little to erase long term bullish psychology in the stock market.
The chart at the provided link goes back to 1968. Currently cash levels are well below levels that preceded sell offs in 1973 and 1976. Equally troubling for any long term buy-and-holders (b-&-hope) is the fact that cash levels are even below levels that preceded stock market sell offs in 2000 and 2007.
If you are following trends with tactical risk management and exit strategies in place, you have a better chance of financial survival in the stock market. If you are buying and holding right now, you are betting against major odds in my humble opinion.
Long term trend is still intact.
The S&P 500 just does not seem to want to break one way or the other. First there was the possible H&S continuation pattern that broke out. Then price fell back below the neckline, now price have rallied back up a little to test the underside of that line again. We will just have to see which way the intermediate term breaks next.
Weekly moving average envelopes on the S&P 500 index are still in uptrend mode. Daily envelopes are now in tentative downtrend mode.
The recent decline followed a negative RSI divergence on the weekly chart.
RSI on the daily chart is in neutral territory, and testing the underside of the upside rage. If it can't move back into positive range, the implication will be bearish for the daily bar chart.
Continuing the mixed trend picture, Dynamic Trailing Stop is in uptrend mode on the weekly bar chart and in downtrend mode on the daily bar chart.
The Average Directional Index / Directional Movement Index indicator is showing non-trending action on both the weekly and daily bar charts.
Based on the Elliott Wave pattern, I continue to have a long term bearish outlook for the stock market indexes. I am not of the firm opinion that wave [2]'s high is in place just yet, but it could be. If it's not, then it is probably not far off.
This is not to say that I will not trade or follow any trending action to the upside, but it is to say that this outlook reminds me to have tactical risk management and exit strategies in place and to also be ready to shift gears to trade downtrends when the time comes.
We continue to notice divergences on the velocity indicators below the price charts.
The VIX continues to paint very complacent picture. I would not be buying the stock market long term right now.
The recent decline in price has led to more put buying. While not a major spike, this further indicates to me that we might be in a consolidation within the larger rally right now. Perhaps a new high for wave [2] after some chopping around would produce a spike low in the Put/Call right when it would be most profitable to own Puts. We will just have to wait and see.
Current Stance
Long Term:
1) Sell to go Flat if you are the buy-and-hold type that does not keep exit stops in place.
2) Hold if you have stops and risk management in place in order to follow the trend.
Intermediate Term:
Flat
Short Term:
Our semi-automated short term system as been taking sell short orders this past week, and is still in that mode as we close Friday. This can easily change more frequently than blog posts.
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
Large distribution pattern appears to be underway in EURO futures.
Intermediate term, EURO futures are in a down to neutral trend.
EURO's moving average envelope on weekly bar is still in uptrend. Daily bar shows down trending moving average envelope. A mixed picture at the moment.
RSI on weekly bar chart of EURO futures is trying to find support in uptrend territory. Will it? Meanwhile, the RSI on the daily bar chart of EURO futures is at bear territory resistance.
More sensitive than the other trend indicators, the Dynamic Trailing Stop is now in downtrend mode on both the weekly and daily bar charts.
ADX is currently indicating non-trending action on both time frames.
My top Elliott Wave count is long term bearish for the EURO. As currencies go, I would rather be placing assets in USD or CHF right now.
Current Stance
Long Term: Sell
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
According to the WSJ, Gold was strengthened today by traders' opinion on oil. Since we can't trade off of that little bit of insight by the paper, let's look at something we can trade off of -Gold price charts.
Long term trend is still up.
If you have been paying attention here for a while, you will note that we rarely try to pick tops and bottoms. Occasionally we will give it a shot, but usually we just follow price trends. Will this uptrend be violated tomorrow? I have no idea. We are just going off of where the trend is today. Trends don't happen overnight, so we just try to catch the wave when we see it forming.
Gold futures have recently violated their intermediate term uptrend.
On the weekly chart, representing the long term trend, our moving average envelope remains in uptrend mode.
The moving average envelope on the daily bar chart has recently moved into downtrend territory.
Continuing a somewhat mixed trend picture, we can see that the weekly Dynamic Trailing Stop is still in uptrend mode, while the daily is currently in downtrend mode.
ADX on the weekly bar chart is showing some weakness in trend, and the daily ADX is reporting non-trending action.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
Disclaimer:
Please note that the information published on this site is not official trading or investing advice. This site is for entertainment purposes and discussion. At no time is this site or its author making specific recommendations for any specific person. At no time may a reader be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, including the possibility to lose more than initial margin funds.
