7/30/11
7/29/11
Technical Analysis - S&P 500 7/29/11
As regular visitors to this blog know, we decided several weeks ago to stay out of either long or short S&P 500 positions in regards to the intermediate and longer term. So far, this decision to step aside has paid off, as the S&P continues to be in a consolidating range.
We have been taking some short-term trades, but those are typically to frequent to cover in a meaningful way here. Nonetheless, it was mentioned towards the end of last week's S&P 500 post that the Put/Call ratio was possibly giving some short term bearish indication. This seems to have played out this week as the index is down over 40 points (depending on close today) from the price level of last week's post.
Let's go through the charts and see what the price action might be telling us going into next week.
Weekly bar chart (our long term chart) -still in a consolidating range.
Boy, it sure is nice to not be in any intermediate or long term trades in this market right now. The intermediate term trend keeps whipping in and out of up and down status within the larger range.
A breakout or breakdown is coming, but will it be a fake out?
Moving average envelope on weekly bar chart is neutral. On the daily, it is slightly in downtrend mode.
Weekly RSI has moved into neutral territory since last week. Daily RSI has moved into downtrend range.
Weekly Dynamic Trailing Stop has remained in uptrend mode, while the daily DTS has now moved into downtrend mode.
ADX / DMI registers non-trending behavior on the weekly bar chart. On the daily, ADX is starting to move north a bit, but I would not say that it is yet registering trending action.
My current Elliott Wave interpretation continues to be long term bearish. I kind of expect a new pattern high before the downtrend gets underway, but I don't see what would make it impossible for things to just go ahead and breakdown. When using tools like Elliott Wave, its good to remember that the price trend is the final arbiter of all arguments. We must ultimately respect and follow price. Be ready.
Remember that we have been watching the RSI indicator at the bottom of the weekly chart above. It is currently in neutral range when viewed as a trend indicator (tighter range markers). I've been mentioning that it would be interesting to see price make a new pattern high while, at the same time, the RSI failed to break above the neutral range. It just seems that such behavior would be a visual set up as trend transitioned from long term up (since early 2009) to long term down. Looking back, you will see similar behavior at prior trend transitions.
The chart above provides a closer view of my current Elliott Wave interpretation. Of course I have no crystal ball. We have to interpret these things every day. In the end, I basically follow price trend. But, tools like Elliott Wave do allow for more a deeper perspective of what just might be happening. It has helped keep us out of the current sideways mess with intermediate and long term trading after all.
Some astute readers out there are probably wondering why I am not mentioning the possible Head and Shoulders pattern present on the chart above. You don't have to wonder anymore. I just mentioned it. It's just not my top interpretation right now, that's all. If prices break below the range lows (red line), then we will have a H&S pattern, and the implication will be bearish. Remember, H&S are supposed to be confirmed before calling them. They, like so many tools, are really trend following in nature. I'll try to post something if that happens before next week's weekly S&P post.
The VIX is rising with the current recent downside action, but it is still at complacent levels. I'm not interested in buying and holding the index at these levels, that's for sure.
Last week, it was mentioned that the decline in the Put/Call ratio had some near term bearish implications. I believe this has now played out. The ration is back in neutral range, and, given the Elliott Wave outlook, I would expect more meandering with some limited upside to follow.
Current Stance
Long Term: Flat
Intermediate term: Flat
Short term:
I use a proprietary semi-automated system for short term trading on this index. The system started out this week with filters in uptrend mode, but quickly switched to downtrend, allowing us to participate on the short side of this week's action. Going into next week, it is still set to allow trades on the short sale side of this market. As you can see, It is very possible for this system to change direction more frequently than posts to this blog, especially considering the signal from the Put/Call ratio.
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
We have been taking some short-term trades, but those are typically to frequent to cover in a meaningful way here. Nonetheless, it was mentioned towards the end of last week's S&P 500 post that the Put/Call ratio was possibly giving some short term bearish indication. This seems to have played out this week as the index is down over 40 points (depending on close today) from the price level of last week's post.
Let's go through the charts and see what the price action might be telling us going into next week.
Weekly bar chart (our long term chart) -still in a consolidating range.
Boy, it sure is nice to not be in any intermediate or long term trades in this market right now. The intermediate term trend keeps whipping in and out of up and down status within the larger range.
A breakout or breakdown is coming, but will it be a fake out?
Moving average envelope on weekly bar chart is neutral. On the daily, it is slightly in downtrend mode.
Weekly RSI has moved into neutral territory since last week. Daily RSI has moved into downtrend range.
Weekly Dynamic Trailing Stop has remained in uptrend mode, while the daily DTS has now moved into downtrend mode.
ADX / DMI registers non-trending behavior on the weekly bar chart. On the daily, ADX is starting to move north a bit, but I would not say that it is yet registering trending action.
My current Elliott Wave interpretation continues to be long term bearish. I kind of expect a new pattern high before the downtrend gets underway, but I don't see what would make it impossible for things to just go ahead and breakdown. When using tools like Elliott Wave, its good to remember that the price trend is the final arbiter of all arguments. We must ultimately respect and follow price. Be ready.
Remember that we have been watching the RSI indicator at the bottom of the weekly chart above. It is currently in neutral range when viewed as a trend indicator (tighter range markers). I've been mentioning that it would be interesting to see price make a new pattern high while, at the same time, the RSI failed to break above the neutral range. It just seems that such behavior would be a visual set up as trend transitioned from long term up (since early 2009) to long term down. Looking back, you will see similar behavior at prior trend transitions.
The chart above provides a closer view of my current Elliott Wave interpretation. Of course I have no crystal ball. We have to interpret these things every day. In the end, I basically follow price trend. But, tools like Elliott Wave do allow for more a deeper perspective of what just might be happening. It has helped keep us out of the current sideways mess with intermediate and long term trading after all.
Some astute readers out there are probably wondering why I am not mentioning the possible Head and Shoulders pattern present on the chart above. You don't have to wonder anymore. I just mentioned it. It's just not my top interpretation right now, that's all. If prices break below the range lows (red line), then we will have a H&S pattern, and the implication will be bearish. Remember, H&S are supposed to be confirmed before calling them. They, like so many tools, are really trend following in nature. I'll try to post something if that happens before next week's weekly S&P post.
The VIX is rising with the current recent downside action, but it is still at complacent levels. I'm not interested in buying and holding the index at these levels, that's for sure.
Last week, it was mentioned that the decline in the Put/Call ratio had some near term bearish implications. I believe this has now played out. The ration is back in neutral range, and, given the Elliott Wave outlook, I would expect more meandering with some limited upside to follow.
Current Stance
Long Term: Flat
Intermediate term: Flat
Short term:
I use a proprietary semi-automated system for short term trading on this index. The system started out this week with filters in uptrend mode, but quickly switched to downtrend, allowing us to participate on the short side of this week's action. Going into next week, it is still set to allow trades on the short sale side of this market. As you can see, It is very possible for this system to change direction more frequently than posts to this blog, especially considering the signal from the Put/Call ratio.
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
7/28/11
Technical Analysis - EURO 7/28/11
The EURO has been a big fat yawn for months on end for me, but I continue to post weekly charts so we will be able to identify opportunity when it arises (or falls).
Long term distribution -that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
Although this market has been very boring lately, one day either the long term bearish view will be vindicated, or, alternatively, market action to the upside will cause a change in that view. For now, we just keep a regular eye on it and look for the eventual opportunity.
Intermediate term trend still looking messy to me.
Weekly moving average envelope: signal line is in neutral range within uptrending envelope. Daily moving average envelope: signal line is in uptrend mode with envelope not really trending.
RSI is in neutral range on both the weekly and daily bar charts.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in downtrend mode on weekly chart, while being slightly in uptrend mode on daily (as of time of post anyway).
ADX / DMI looks really weak and non-trending on both charts right now.
My Elliott Wave interpretation remains long term bearish on the EURO.
Current Stance
Long Term: Sell
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
Long term distribution -that's my story and I'm sticking to it.
Although this market has been very boring lately, one day either the long term bearish view will be vindicated, or, alternatively, market action to the upside will cause a change in that view. For now, we just keep a regular eye on it and look for the eventual opportunity.
Intermediate term trend still looking messy to me.
Weekly moving average envelope: signal line is in neutral range within uptrending envelope. Daily moving average envelope: signal line is in uptrend mode with envelope not really trending.
RSI is in neutral range on both the weekly and daily bar charts.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in downtrend mode on weekly chart, while being slightly in uptrend mode on daily (as of time of post anyway).
ADX / DMI looks really weak and non-trending on both charts right now.
My Elliott Wave interpretation remains long term bearish on the EURO.
Current Stance
Long Term: Sell
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
7/27/11
Technical Analysis - Gold 7/27/11
Gold has pushed higher again since last week's post.
And the long term uptrend continues.
Intermediate term uptrend continues. I've held out on this on the intermediate term. Will that have been a mistake? We'll see.
Moving average envelopes are in uptrend mode on both weekly and daily bar charts.
RSI is in uptrend range on weekly and daily bar time frames as well, but there is a slight divergence on the weekly RSI.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in uptrend mode on both weekly and daily bar time frames.
ADX / DMI is registering trending behavior on both charts.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
(It might end up being a mistake, but I held off on the intermediate term trend here.)
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
And the long term uptrend continues.
Intermediate term uptrend continues. I've held out on this on the intermediate term. Will that have been a mistake? We'll see.
Moving average envelopes are in uptrend mode on both weekly and daily bar charts.
RSI is in uptrend range on weekly and daily bar time frames as well, but there is a slight divergence on the weekly RSI.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in uptrend mode on both weekly and daily bar time frames.
ADX / DMI is registering trending behavior on both charts.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
(It might end up being a mistake, but I held off on the intermediate term trend here.)
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
Rand Paul on Debt Ceiling Debate: "None of these [plans] cut spending; none of these cut the deficit...."
Both the Reid and Boehner plans add somewhere between $7 and $8 TRILLION over 10 years!
The younger Dr. Paul goes on to say that politicians and government need to start being honest with the American people. I won't hold my breath for that to happen.
7/26/11
Technical Analysis - Swiss Franc 7/27/11
It is no secret to readers of this blog that I have really liked the Swiss Franc for some time. This admiration is really just a result of following price trend. Yes, I do think there are arguments for having money in a safe heaven currency too, but it seems that the market's price trends have that baked in. Instead of over thinking things, we might as well surf the financial waves by simply following the price trends.
Long term uptrend still edging higher as of time of this post.
Intermediate term uptrend still looking healthy. The trend is your friend until in the end when it bends. I think Seykota is credited with saying that, but its just etched in my memory, because I think it's cool.
Moving average envelopes (we are mostly concerned with weekly and daily in these posts) are still in uptrend mode.
RSI is in uptrend range on both weekly and daily charts.
Dynamic Trailing Stop indicator is in uptrend mode on both time frames.
ADX / DMI is registering solid trending behavior on the weekly chart. Although not as solid, the daily ADX / DMI is also registering trending action.
At the time of this posting, 1 USD = 0.80085 CHF.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold
Intermediate Term: Hold
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
Long term uptrend still edging higher as of time of this post.
Intermediate term uptrend still looking healthy. The trend is your friend until in the end when it bends. I think Seykota is credited with saying that, but its just etched in my memory, because I think it's cool.
Moving average envelopes (we are mostly concerned with weekly and daily in these posts) are still in uptrend mode.
RSI is in uptrend range on both weekly and daily charts.
Dynamic Trailing Stop indicator is in uptrend mode on both time frames.
ADX / DMI is registering solid trending behavior on the weekly chart. Although not as solid, the daily ADX / DMI is also registering trending action.
At the time of this posting, 1 USD = 0.80085 CHF.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold
Intermediate Term: Hold
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
7/25/11
Technical Analysis - Silver 7/25/11
There has not bee much change in Silver since last week's post.
Intact long term uptrend.
Silver's intermediate term trend is technically up right now, but it is still below more recent highs. I'm holding out on the intermediate term for now.
Weekly moving average envelope: signal neutral inside upwards sloping envelope. Daily moving average envelope: signal in uptrend range above upwards sloping envelope.
RSI is in uptrend range on both the weekly and daily charts.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in uptrend mode on both weekly and daily charts.
ADX / DMI registers non-trending action on both charts.
I've been showing the chart above for a while now. It's good to keep a regular and routine eye on things, even during the boring periods.
My current Elliott Wave interpretation indicates more intermediate term downside likely before continuation of the longer term uptrend.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
Intact long term uptrend.
Silver's intermediate term trend is technically up right now, but it is still below more recent highs. I'm holding out on the intermediate term for now.
Weekly moving average envelope: signal neutral inside upwards sloping envelope. Daily moving average envelope: signal in uptrend range above upwards sloping envelope.
RSI is in uptrend range on both the weekly and daily charts.
Dynamic Trailing Stop is in uptrend mode on both weekly and daily charts.
ADX / DMI registers non-trending action on both charts.
I've been showing the chart above for a while now. It's good to keep a regular and routine eye on things, even during the boring periods.
My current Elliott Wave interpretation indicates more intermediate term downside likely before continuation of the longer term uptrend.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
7/24/11
7/23/11
Technical Analysis - S&P 500 7/23/11
Still within a price trend consolidation, the S&P 500 has been messing with traders in recent weeks. I have seen both sell short and go long calls from technical analysts / traders who are at other times often on the same page. For us, we have remained out of any intermediate or long term trades in this market for some weeks now.
If we are going to simply trade the here and now (trend following), then it is not clear what the trend on the weekly chart is going to do next. Market message from just this perspective -wait it out.
Last week's post stated that it has been nice not to have been involved with the intermediate and long term trends of this market right now. It still feels rewarding to have stood aside this week.
Weekly moving average envelope is still neutral, while the daily MA envelope edges into uptrend territory.
Both weekly and daily RSI are in uptrend territory, when viewed as a trend indicators rather than an overbought / oversold indicator (notice the tightened range lines).
Weekly Dynamic Trailing Stop still in uptrend mode. Daily DTS whipping back into uptrend mode.
ADX / DMI currently registers non-trending action in both time frame. The daily ADX is starting to turn up a bit, but look how far below both +DMI and -DMI it is.
The perspective gained from the Elliott Wave interpretation on the chart above has served us well lately. It's my current interpretation. Others may have a different view, but indicated by this count is that a major top is likely near. This could possibly come from slightly new pattern highs.
I continue to think the RSI on this chart may be in the process of forming an interesting signal. We will just have to keep watching to see. Basically, I am interested in seeing if RSI can or cannot move back into uptrend territory prior to a breakdown.
The VIX is still hovering around complacent levels.
Wow! Look at the move in the Put/Call ratio over the past week. This has short term bearish implications. I'm not saying its pound on the table bearish or anything, but.. The decrease in the ratio indicates that this week's little rally caused traders to move to a more bullish outlook. The Put/Call is a contrarian sentiment indicator.
Current Stance
Long Term: Flat
Intermediate term: Flat
Short term: I use a proprietary semi-automated system for short term trading on this index, and it now taking trades to the long side. It is very possible for this system to change direction more frequently than posts to this blog, especially considering the signal from the Put/Call ratio.
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
If we are going to simply trade the here and now (trend following), then it is not clear what the trend on the weekly chart is going to do next. Market message from just this perspective -wait it out.
Last week's post stated that it has been nice not to have been involved with the intermediate and long term trends of this market right now. It still feels rewarding to have stood aside this week.
Weekly moving average envelope is still neutral, while the daily MA envelope edges into uptrend territory.
Both weekly and daily RSI are in uptrend territory, when viewed as a trend indicators rather than an overbought / oversold indicator (notice the tightened range lines).
Weekly Dynamic Trailing Stop still in uptrend mode. Daily DTS whipping back into uptrend mode.
ADX / DMI currently registers non-trending action in both time frame. The daily ADX is starting to turn up a bit, but look how far below both +DMI and -DMI it is.
The perspective gained from the Elliott Wave interpretation on the chart above has served us well lately. It's my current interpretation. Others may have a different view, but indicated by this count is that a major top is likely near. This could possibly come from slightly new pattern highs.
I continue to think the RSI on this chart may be in the process of forming an interesting signal. We will just have to keep watching to see. Basically, I am interested in seeing if RSI can or cannot move back into uptrend territory prior to a breakdown.
The VIX is still hovering around complacent levels.
Wow! Look at the move in the Put/Call ratio over the past week. This has short term bearish implications. I'm not saying its pound on the table bearish or anything, but.. The decrease in the ratio indicates that this week's little rally caused traders to move to a more bullish outlook. The Put/Call is a contrarian sentiment indicator.
Current Stance
Long Term: Flat
Intermediate term: Flat
Short term: I use a proprietary semi-automated system for short term trading on this index, and it now taking trades to the long side. It is very possible for this system to change direction more frequently than posts to this blog, especially considering the signal from the Put/Call ratio.
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
7/22/11
Panic of 1893 with Lawrence Reed
Ever heard of the Suffolk Bank and it's free market regulation system?
7/21/11
Technical Analysis - EURO 7/21/11
I'm repeating myself when I say I don't like the EURO right now, but that does not stop me from putting up a weekly set of charts. We have to keep a regular eye on markets we might decide to trade. You never really know when an opportunity might present itself.
Still looking like long term distribution to me.
Intermediate term trend back to neutral status. I'm happy to have not participated in this mess.
Weekly and daily moving average envelopes are neutral.
RSI is in neutral range on the weekly bar chart and has just edged up into uptrend range on the daily chart.
Dynamic Trailing Stop in downtrend mode on weekly chart and emerging into uptrend mode on daily chart.
ADX / DMI registers non-trending action on both charts.
My Elliott Wave interpretation is bearish long term, but I'm not pulling the trigger yet. I look forward to a good opportunity to short this market in intermediate term trading, but I don't see it just yet.
Current Stance
Long Term: Sell
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
Still looking like long term distribution to me.
Intermediate term trend back to neutral status. I'm happy to have not participated in this mess.
Weekly and daily moving average envelopes are neutral.
RSI is in neutral range on the weekly bar chart and has just edged up into uptrend range on the daily chart.
Dynamic Trailing Stop in downtrend mode on weekly chart and emerging into uptrend mode on daily chart.
ADX / DMI registers non-trending action on both charts.
My Elliott Wave interpretation is bearish long term, but I'm not pulling the trigger yet. I look forward to a good opportunity to short this market in intermediate term trading, but I don't see it just yet.
Current Stance
Long Term: Sell
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
7/20/11
Technical Analysis - Gold 7/20/11
Gold is making new highs since last week's post.
Parallel trendlines have been redrawn again this week to respect the continued uptrend.
Intermediate term uptrend.
Weekly and daily moving average envelopes both in uptrend mode.
RSI is also in uptrend range on the long and intermediate term charts above. Slight divergence present on weekly that will either be corrected, or will warn of possible trouble / consolidation ahead.
Dynamic Trailing Stop in uptrend mode on both charts. Look at it hug the daily bar's trend. One of my future projects is to program one of these myself that is slightly different in function / calculation than this one. But I do the this DTS is good.
ADX / DMI registers trending action on both charts right now.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
(It might end up being a mistake, but I held off on the intermediate term trend here.)
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
Parallel trendlines have been redrawn again this week to respect the continued uptrend.
Intermediate term uptrend.
Weekly and daily moving average envelopes both in uptrend mode.
RSI is also in uptrend range on the long and intermediate term charts above. Slight divergence present on weekly that will either be corrected, or will warn of possible trouble / consolidation ahead.
Dynamic Trailing Stop in uptrend mode on both charts. Look at it hug the daily bar's trend. One of my future projects is to program one of these myself that is slightly different in function / calculation than this one. But I do the this DTS is good.
ADX / DMI registers trending action on both charts right now.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
(It might end up being a mistake, but I held off on the intermediate term trend here.)
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
7/19/11
Technical Analysis - Swiss Franc 7/19/11
The Swiss Franc was down a little today, but has made new highs since last week's post.
Parallel trend lines have been redrawn to accommodate the new pattern high in the Swiss Franc.
Simply following price trends is slow, susceptible to whipsaws and draw-downs, and lacking in a sexy back story, but, similar to surfing, it works real well when you catch a good wave.
Both the weekly and daily bar moving average envelopes are in uptrend mode.
RSI is uptrend mode on both the weekly and daily bar charts as well.
Dynamic Trailing Stop (DTS) in uptrend mode on both the weekly and daily charts.
ADX / DMI is registering trending action on both charts. We do see some divergence in the positive DMI on the weekly bar and in the ADX itself (yellow) on the daily bar chart.
At the time of this posting 1 USD = 0.82404 CHF.
As with any trend, this one will end at some point, but it is an enjoyable ride for now.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold
Intermediate Term: Hold
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
Parallel trend lines have been redrawn to accommodate the new pattern high in the Swiss Franc.
Simply following price trends is slow, susceptible to whipsaws and draw-downs, and lacking in a sexy back story, but, similar to surfing, it works real well when you catch a good wave.
Both the weekly and daily bar moving average envelopes are in uptrend mode.
RSI is uptrend mode on both the weekly and daily bar charts as well.
Dynamic Trailing Stop (DTS) in uptrend mode on both the weekly and daily charts.
ADX / DMI is registering trending action on both charts. We do see some divergence in the positive DMI on the weekly bar and in the ADX itself (yellow) on the daily bar chart.
At the time of this posting 1 USD = 0.82404 CHF.
As with any trend, this one will end at some point, but it is an enjoyable ride for now.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold
Intermediate Term: Hold
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
European Bank Stress Test: "It's not that 8 failed...but that 82 passed!!"
By Elliott Wave International
The European Banking Authority announced Friday that 8 banks had failed their stress tests and 16 more had narrowly passed. But the results drew much criticism from analysts, who said that the stress test is not strict enough... Read more.
A Short History of US Credit Defaults
There is a piece at the Mises Institute website outlining the history of US Credit Defaults.
7/18/11
Techncial Analysis - Silver 7/18/11
Silver has been rallying since last week's post.
Long term uptrend.
We could possibly say that silver's intermediate term trend has turned back up, but I'm holding out on that a little longer at least.
Weekly moving average envelope is in neutral range, while the daily MA envelope is in uptrend mode.
Both weekly and daily RSI are in uptrend range (looking at RSI as another measure of trend here as per Connie Brown's book).
Weekly Dynamic Trailing Stop is not back in uptrend mode along with the daily DTS.
ADX / DMI still looks weak on both charts.
My current Elliott Wave interpretation indicates more intermediate term downside likely prior to continuation of larger uptrend.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
Long term uptrend.
We could possibly say that silver's intermediate term trend has turned back up, but I'm holding out on that a little longer at least.
Weekly moving average envelope is in neutral range, while the daily MA envelope is in uptrend mode.
Both weekly and daily RSI are in uptrend range (looking at RSI as another measure of trend here as per Connie Brown's book).
Weekly Dynamic Trailing Stop is not back in uptrend mode along with the daily DTS.
ADX / DMI still looks weak on both charts.
My current Elliott Wave interpretation indicates more intermediate term downside likely prior to continuation of larger uptrend.
Current Stance
Long Term: Hold (core position)
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position
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