Trading Rules

Lately I've been talking to an very good and very long time friend about my return to trading.  We talk about other stuff too, but I like to bounce ideas off of him because he has kept me straight in prior business and personal life.  He gave me his number one trading rule yesterday. Here it is:

"Trading is a fight.  Rule #1 in a fight is don't get your ass kicked!"

I absolutely love this!  Our conversation had been about tactics for cutting losses short and creating more efficiency in getting out of trades that were not working well.  These words were very appropriate.  I was already fired up about some trading success when we started talking. These two sentences motivated me even more.  I am going to ask him for more rules like this. Maybe we can create a list and post it. 

Gold

Many markets were given a happy pill via coordinated efforts by the Fed and five other central banks today.  Gold was one of these markets. 


As technical / tactical traders, our main question now is if there will be follow through in the price action to produce a trend, or if the reaction will be reversed.  We don't know the answer to that question yet.  No one knows the future.  That's why we follow price trends and limit risk. 

Gold's long term uptrend is still intact and has been given a little caffeine today.   

Last week's downside price action moved the intermediate term into a neutral trend.  Prices did not follow through to the downside.  In fact, gold's daily prices are bouncing off a trend line created as a parallel to a line connecting recent highs.  It looks messy to me.  I'm still glad I've been on the sidelines in this market.  


A break above the November highs (blue line) would signal an uptrend underway on the intermediate term.  A break below the lows from last week would strengthen the case for an intermediate term downtrend being underway.  Being basically a here, I will most likely participate accordingly if either event happens.  Until then, I am happy to let the two armies battle it out so I can join the winning team.  I have to admit that blue is starting to look pretty good though.  But I don't want to let one good play on their part cloud my discernment.  Here is to fair weather fans!

Can gold's daily moving average envelope reverse back into uptrend mode?  That is really the question with these two charts.  The weekly MA envelope is trending up with the signal line between high and low lines.  


RSI is holding above support on the weekly chart for now.  Daily RSI is still in downtrend territory, but has breached the first line of resistance. 

Gold's weekly bar chart has held above the Dynamic Trailing Stop.  Daily price bars have whipsawed below and then back above the DTS.  Like I said: it's been nice to be on the sidelines for this futures traders.  Maybe an extra long Christmas vacation is in order?  


ADX continues to register non-trending action on the weekly chart.  The daily ADX looks to be turning down a little as a result of today's happy pill dance. 


More and more I am trying to simplify my life and not worry so much about various news stories and political events.  I just want to practice tactical trading, including the systems I am developing and my short-term e-mini S&P trading (which is driven by a set of simple algorithms), but even I can't help but wonder the answer to a question a friend posed to me in an e-mail today in response to the new central bank action:  

"I wonder which bank/country was on the verge of collapse?"  

As traders, we can profit by harnessing these trends regardless of what may or may not be causing them, but some of the actions by governments and central banks can't help but get under your skin sometimes.  It just seems like they are making things worse in the long run. How long can these types of shenanigans go on anyway?   


Current Stance

Long Term: Flat

Intermediate Term: Flat

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position

Robert Prechter Explains The Fed, Part II
The world's foremost Elliott wave expert goes "behind the scenes" on the Federal Reserve
By Elliott Wave International

This is Part II of our three-part series "Robert Prechter Explains The Fed." "Let's attempt to define what gives the dollar objective value. As we will see in the next section, the dollar is 'backed' primarily by government bonds, which are promises to pay dollars. So today, the dollar is a promise backed by a promise..." Read more.        

Swiss Franc

In recent weeks we have been watching from the sidelines and expecting the Swiss Franc to make a new pattern / trend low.  A new pattern low has now been achieved.  


We do not know if a bottom is in yet, but we expect the next big intermediate term opportunity to be to the upside.  We are not yet positioning for this trade.  Reactionary tactics will be implemented in the positioning process.  It might be a while, especially if new lows keep coming.  If the pattern continues to work out as we see it now, then our expectation is for that intermediate term uptrend to possibly be choppy / tricky and not exceed the Franc's highs from 8/09/11.  Following the expected intermediate term upside pattern, we expect a larger downside move.  


The pattern / forecast stuff is sometimes used to filter other signals, but I will be using reactionary / in the moment tactics  in terms of positioning and following the potential trends.  

Possible Elliott Wave impulse?   

Last week, the question was if prices would break the downside line.  That question is answered.  If I were short this market right now, profits would be allowed to run, but stops would also be tightened to lock in most of the current profits.  Based on my friend Mike's no B.S. system, I would cover my shorts if prices moved above 1.1175 (basis: continuation futures contract).  New lows would lead me to tighten further.  This not time to pussyfoot around with this market.  Prepare to take your reward if you are short. 

Moving average envelopes show downtrends on both the weekly and daily charts.  


Check out the current divergence on the RSI!  Yes, RSI is in downtrend range, but it is also positively diverging with price on both time frames.  This lines up with the Elliott Wave hypothesis mentioned earlier.  If you are short, protect your profits. 

Dynamic Trailing Stop is in downtrend mode on both Swiss Franc charts, and providing tight stops. 


ADX continues to register non-trending behavior on the weekly chart, but records price trending action on the daily.  

At the time of this post, 1 USD = 0.92004 CHF


Current Stance 

Long Term: Flat 

Intermediate Term: Flat

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position

Markets Aren't Rational
EWI's Brian Whitmer shows how the European financial markets move despite the news
By Elliott Wave International

As the news from Europe about bailouts and the euro's viability changes by the hour, EWI's European editor, Brian Whitmer, doesn't see the uncertainty as a problem. In fact, he points out that when uncertainty blooms, you can really see that markets aren't rational and that Elliott waves tend to become even clearer. Read More.

Silver

I am still not excited about any play in the silver market right now.  

Silver is trying to break above of the weekly bar channel line.  Will it be successful?   

Intermediate downtrend still in place, but consolidating since last week's post.

Moving average envelopes tell us that silver is in a downtrend on both the long and intermediate term time frames. 


RSI is in downtrend range on both charts as well.

The Dynamic Trailing Stop is in downtrend mode on silver's weekly and daily bar charts. 


ADX shows non-trending behavior on the weekly chart.  Daily ADX readings have responded to recent downside action by registering intermediate term trending behavior.  


Last week, we mentioned that 34.625 (basis continuation contract) would be a logical stop loss level for anyone who has sold the silver market short.  That level is still a logical line in the sand for intermediate term positions.  The daily DTS offers a much tighter stop level than that, while the weekly DTS is only slightly tighter.  If you are short, take your pick of the three options for stop loss levels.  At the moment, I remain uninterested in this market.  


Current Stance

Long Term: Flat trading positions 

Intermediate Term: Flat

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position

Prechter: "The Trend Is Exhausted"
Robert Prechter explains what's the real problem with today's market
By Elliott Wave International

What is the real problem with today's market? Watch this excerpt from Robert Prechter's special, video issue of the August Elliott Wave Theorist. Prechter shows you how the buildup of dollar-denominated debt has brought us to what he calls a critical market juncture. Read More.  
  

Ron Paul at Des Moines Register Editorial Board

Want to know more about Ron Paul than minimal time in the debates allows for?  A great discussion can be found in the video below.  I am a long-time Ron Paul supporter.  I started watching him early into the Bush II regime.  Paul consistently promotes free-markets and liberty like no other politician ever has.  


Just watch and see for yourself.  Foreign Policy discussion begins at the 5:30 min mark.  There is much more time for him to talk than other forums.  The people asking the questions are not supporters.  That gives us a little tension / challenge with a lot of time to battle in the realm of ideas and principles, which is where Paul shines. 





"If anyone cares and has a humanitarian instinct, they have to really study the market" -Dr. Ron Paul

A world where liberty has been traded for material equality and security

The alternate: free-markets - a place for personal creativity. 

S&P 500 11/23/11

Posting for the five macro markets we talk about on a weekly basis is accelerated this week. Let's all be thankful for all the blessings we have, including a long weekend! 


One thing to be thankful for is price trends.  If you sold the S&P short when it broke below the consolidation that formed between October 27th and November 15th, then you probably have a good deal to be thankful for.  

I really like trading downside action in the sock indexes.  The downtrends just seem to move much faster.  Maybe that is just the current broader environment we are in.  Will the current action eventually return us to long term downtrend status?  Only time will tell.  

Last week, the main goal for us was to mange stops on new short positions.  It is still the main goal for us in this market.  An intermediate term downtrend is on the board.  We are riding it.  Are we still in skeptic phase?  Absolutely!  


Any intermediate term trader should have as the maximum stop loss level  1259.61 (basis cash).  If prices move above that level, then we are back into uptrend range.  Yes, I know that is not the previous pattern high.  


Tighter stops can be provided by the trend lines or the most recent fan line on the chart above.  Take your pick.  We also have the ultra tight stop provided by the DTS, which will be shown further into the post. 

The weekly moving average envelope is trending down.  It's signal line is in neutral range, against resistance.  The daily MA envelope is trending down with a signal line that is in downtrend range. 


RSI is in downtrend range on both time frames.  

Dynamic Trailing Stop doing what it does -providing stop levels.  Now in downtrend mode on both time frames.  It's up to you to decide if the daily DTS is currently giving prices enough room to breath. 


ADX still shows non-trending behavior on the weekly chart.  Negative DMI (red line) and positive DMI (blue line) are starting to indicate possible downtrend emerging on this same chart.  ADX on the daily chart has turned up and is indicating trending behavior on the intermediate term.  Likewise, the diverging DMI's on the daily chart indicate healthy downtrend.  

It is always important to know in advance what action would indicate an incorrect directional trade.  This can be achieved with trend following indicators, custom trend following algorithms, and rules based on price pattern.  We use all of the above.  


"Fundamental" factors, which would be more correctly termed "External" factors or "External" Analysis cannot objectively tell you when you are wrong in a directional trade.   


Elliott Wave is rule based analysis.  My current Elliott Wave interpretation is bearish.  It would be proven incorrect (at least at the level of the supposed wave (2) above) if prices broke above 1292.66 (basis cash market).  Less important at this point is that this interpretation would be further indicated as being correct if prices break below  1074.77 (basis cash market).

Current Stance:

Long Term: Hold Short against stops mentioned in the post

Intermediate term: Hold Short against stops mentioned in the post

Short term: 
My propriety short term system is taking trades to the short sell side.  Changes in directional orientation as well as entries and exits occur more frequently than posts to this blog. 


Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position       


"Darkest Days" for the Economy: Behind Us, or Just Ahead? 
Economic skies forecast: slowly clearing, heavy rain returning, or cyclone?
Elliott Wave International 

Get Your Free "Most Important Investment Report for 2012"

There are just a few days left to get your free report, The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012.

Every year or two Elliott Wave International (EWI) publishes analysis with a message so critical that they decide to share it, FREE.

Now is that time.

The Most Important Investment Report You'll Read for 2012 includes 25 charts and 14 pages of analysis on the markets and economy that you will not find anywhere else.

You get a review of ALL of the charts and ALL of the indicators that EWI has been watching over the past year or so -- to provide you the full impact of what they are seeing. The entire picture will show you a rather radical conclusion about the future of stock prices.

Subscribers pay up to $59/month for this critical analysis, but until November 30 you can read it free.

EURO 11/23/11

Our short EURO position is working out pretty well so far.  It's always nice to move stops to a slight profit area or break even.  A ride in the markets is always much more relaxing after killing off potential losses.  


Stops for short EURO positions are being moved down to 1.3569 (basis futures).  If we get taken out, we can always renter.  If the trend continues, then even better!  More and more I see this business as the business of killing losses and feeding winners.  It pays to take calculated risks. It also pays to be a skeptic. 


Let's see what the charts look like this week. 

Long term distribution pattern? 

As mentioned earlier, a price move in the EURO above 1.3568 (basis futures) would cause me to cover short positions. 

Downtrend across time frames and indicators. 

Dynamic Trailing Stop providing slightly looser exit levels than I mentioned earlier.  Although I am currently developing automated trading systems, It continues to be apparent to me that the human brain is the best system we have.  It just needs lots of training!  It can also be emotional and trick you.  The brain also needs a good deal of R&R.  That's where automated systems help out.  They are farming machines that solve some of these issues. 


ADX is perking up a little on the weekly chart and the daily chart.  A trend is on the board right now.  Will it last?  No one knows that.  Might as well stop trying to figure it out.  Just trade it. 

My Elliott Wave interpretation continues to be bearish, but I'm not so sure what to do with the current subdivisions.  Because I am primarily a trader, rather than an analyst, I don't really care about that right now.  Just being honest.  


Current Stance

Long Term: Hold USD for savings related funds.

Intermediate Term: Hold Short against level mentioned in post. 

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position   

"What's the Downside of Being Safe?"
By Elliott Wave International

In an interview with the Mind of Money, Robert Prechter stresses the importance of keeping your money safe in this bear market environment. According to the Elliott wave model, we have entered a critical phase in the market. This 3-minute video clip will help you to prepare for what's ahead. Read More.

Gold 11/22/11

Gold has seen a fair amount of intermediate term deterioration since last week's post.  

 Long term uptrend still holding on for now.  

Overlapping subdivisions - is it a breakdown or a windup?  A break above the November highs (blue line) would be bullish.  Right now we are in neutral to bearish territory.  

The big change in our moving average envelope charts is that the daily MA signal line is now in downtrend mode.  I really like simple tools like this.  Trust me, I have done all the complex stuff.  Even the falsely named "fundamental" analysis.  Nothing works as well as following the price trend.  There is no holly grail, and trading involves losses, but catching a trend is what we are here for.  Go straight to the source -price action.

RSI is kind of neutral on the weekly chart -between support and resistance.  Weekly RSI could actually be considered in uptrend mode -holding above support.  I won't hold it against you, that's for sure.  To me the best clue in this argument is the fact that the recent intermediate term rally on the daily chart was NOT able to hold RSI back above that resistance line.  

Another intermediate term change here since last week too.  Gold broke below an uptrending Dynamic Trailing Stop on the daily bar chart, reversing it to downtrend mode.  If there is any follow through, it looks like the weekly DTS will reverse.  

ADX is still showing non-trending behavior on the weekly chart, but it has turned up with this week's daily chart downtrend.  Negative Directional Movement Index (DMI) has also crossed over positive DMI on the daily chart.  Intermediate term downtrend emerging, or consolidation?  We will not know till it's further underway. 

I still feel best on the gold sidelines here.  Perhaps that is because a good deal of my focus is currently being diverted to short term S&P trading and systems (intermediate / long term and short-term) building, but perhaps it is because there really is nothing much to look at here.  All we can do is speculate at this point.  Like all other trading decisions, the market will be the final arbiter of that argument.  

Current Stance

Long Term: Flat

Intermediate Term: Flat

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position

Robert Prechter Explains The Fed, Part II
The world's foremost Elliott wave expert goes "behind the scenes" on the Federal Reserve
By Elliott Wave International

This is Part II of our three-part series "Robert Prechter Explains The Fed." "Let's attempt to define what gives the dollar objective value. As we will see in the next section, the dollar is 'backed' primarily by government bonds, which are promises to pay dollars. So today, the dollar is a promise backed by a promise..." Read more.

Swiss Franc 11/22/11

Similar to some of the other markets we currently work with, we are happy to be on the sidelines in the Swiss Franc right now.

Long term downtrend broken.  Now watching to see what develops from here.  

Which way will the intermediate term trend break out of this little box?  Pressure has been to the downside recently.  Let's see if it can finish the job.  Broader pattern looks impulsive in Elliott Wave terms to the downside.  A three wave corrective advance proportional to the overall decline would be a major warning sign for this market.  That's not really a call I am trying to make right here.  Just something I'm watching.  

Downtrend. 

Possible divergence developing on the RSI indicators.  Let's keep an eye on that possible divergence if prices make a new low. 

Dynamic Trailing Stop in downtrend following mode on both charts. 

ADX registers non-trending action on the weekly chart, and has even flattened out a bit on the daily chart. 

At the time of this post, 1 USD = 0.91378 CHF.  

Current Stance 

Long Term: Flat

Intermediate Term: Flat

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position

 

What Are the BEST Technical Indicators for Successful Trading?
8 technical analysis tools that give any trader an edge
By Elliott Wave International

You may have seen a TV ad where "traders" describe their strategies, and one says, "I trade on fundamentals." That sounds very reassuring -- except, which "fundamental" factor trumps the other? Which one carries more weight in your forecast? Your guess is as good (or bad) as anybody's. Your alternative is technical analysis... Read More.

Nigel Farage - not afraid to speak up

I've seen videos of him like this before, and always get a kick out of them. But I don't really know a lot about him other than that. The EURO was a terrible idea. It seems like he understands that much.

Silver 11/21/11

It's a happy place to be out of the silver market over the past few sessions.  Gains in silver price from the 9/26/11 lows are being eroded.  Silver has been tricky.  We got out of longs before the intermediate term downtrend began back in early May.  We then did not reenter based on a thought that at least slightly lower lows were needed in the pattern prior to a significant rally.  We were kind of wrong on that, as a rally did develop.  The rub is that said rally is now being reversed.  The silver lining seems to be found on the sidelines for now. 

 Silver's weekly chart shows a downtrend that remains in place. 

Last week, the daily chart looked to be forming a consolidation pattern.  Similar to what happened in the S&P's similar pattern, it failed by breaking to the downside.  Now on the board is a possibly emerging intermediate term downtrend. 

 
Moving average envelopes are now in downtrend mode on both time frames.

Something we have continued to point out is the fact that RSI, when used as a trend following tool, has remained in downtrend mode in silver over recent weeks / months.  Clearly, this is important to watch as we see prices again deteriorating. 

The Dynamic Trailing Stop -an exit tool- is in downtrend mode on both the weekly and the daily bar charts. 

ADX (yellow line below price chart) shows non-trending action on the weekly chart, but has perked up to indicate a possible emerging trend on the daily bar chart.  Negative DMI (red line) is indicating downtrend on the daily, as is positive DMI (blue line).    

My Elliott Wave count is being excluded this week while we wait and see what develops here.  It might need to be changed.  From our point of view, the current message for intermediate and long term tactical traders is to stay on the sidelines.  Of course, the market is made of competing views, so everyone should form their own.  This is mine for now.  

I don't really care what silver does.  We are just looking for price trends to catch and ride.  Simple trend following methods are our weapon for now.  It probably should be mentioned that one of my automated systems (still in development) is currently short the silver market.  

A logical stop loss level for anyone who is now short would be 34.625, basis futures. 

Current Stance

Long Term: Flat trading positions

Intermediate Term: Flat

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell Short = positioned to attempt to make money on price declines
Buy / Long = positioned to make money on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = Hold a short position


"Darkest Days" for the Economy: Behind Us, or Just Ahead?
Economic skies forecast: slowly clearing, heavy rain returning, or cyclone?
Elliott Wave International 

 

Ron Paul -Highlights from Thanksgiving Family Formum

Ron Paul is the consistent defender of free-markets and liberty.  He is the truth teller on stage. 

 

Hugh Hendry

 


Pursue your own passion.

Technical Analysis - S&P 500 11/18/11

Last week's S&P 500 post pointed out a consolidation that looked a lot like a triangle on the daily chart.  We recognized that prices would probably be breaking out of that range fairly soon.  Prices did brake out of that range.  They broke to the downside.  

I had expected a break to the upside to then be followed by a reversal to the downside.  Looks like the market took a shortcut.  But this is a good time to repeat something that has been stated here before.  If you are a trader and you care which way the market trends, then you are doing it wrong.  None of us know the future.  We can only manage probabilities.  One way to do that is to simply, but tactically, follow price trends.  And if you think you have all the "fundamentals" worked out so you can forecast the markets direction, then I have a bridge in NY to sell you.  I know, I know.  I've read all those books too.  I'm still saving some of them for kindling in a SHTF scenario. 

So prices broke to the downside.  What do you do?  If you are either long or short, you mange your stops according to your plan, that's what!  

The bigger question is: what is going to happen with the larger price range above?

Not much follow through to the break so far.  This might be partially due to the break occurring late in the week.  It might be an indication of other things.  For example, this could easily be an A-B-C down scenario.  If so, then prices will be set to rally soon.  Maybe after slightly lower levels.  

But it does not matter, and we don't care.  Just manage your stops and position size for proper risk management.  

Bottom line: Stops for intermediate term shorts need to be no higher than the 1259.62 (cash index) mark.   I would move stops for long-term shorts down to that level as well.  

No sell signal on the weekly or daily moving average envelopes just yet.  Depending on how you read these things, you might consider the weekly signal line up against resistance right now.  The daily signal line is up against support.  

RSI is in downtrend mode on both charts.  

Weekly Dynamic Trailing Stop is still in uptrend mode.  Daily DTS is in downtrend mode, and providing an even tighter exit for shorts than I suggested above. 

Weekly ADX registers non-trending behavior.  Daily ADX has turned up slightly with the downward action.  

My current Elliott Wave interpretation will be proven wrong or right by the larger price range outlined earlier in the post.  It is currently long term bearish.  Elliott Wave is a tool I use a lot, even in the short term, but I often use it in a trend following manor.  I will definitely follow a price trend up even if the EW model is negated, so long as other basic systems and rules tell me to do so.  

Current Stance:

Long Term: Hold Short against stops mentioned in the post

Intermediate term: Hold Short against stop mentioned in the post

Short term: 
My propriety short term system is currently neutral.  Changes in directional orientation as well as entries and exits in this system occur more frequently than posts to this blog.  Although carrying positions overnight is not out of the question with this system, it does frequently enter and exit on the same day.  

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position     

 
"Darkest Days" for the Economy: Behind Us, or Just Ahead?
Economic skies forecast: slowly clearing, heavy rain returning, or cyclone?
Elliott Wave International
 

"Darkest Days" for the Economy: Behind Us, or Just Ahead?

Economic skies forecast: slowly clearing, heavy rain returning, or cyclone?
By Elliott Wave International 

Many people still talk about a "recovery," or at worst only see a possible double-dip recession. But what if the mistake was to think the economy was only in a recession in the first place?... Read More.

Technical Analysis - EURO 11/17/11

We moved the stop for short positions in the EURO futures down to 1.3854 in last week's post.  Stops are being tightened it a bit more this week.  1.3793 is the new level.   Yes, I remain skeptical.  Moving stops to break even or profit territory as quick as possible has become one of my goals.  But I don't do it arbitrarily.  When price action draws a new line in the sand, I respect it.  

A picture of long term distribution? 

A break above the blue line (1.3793) would lead me to cover short positions.   

The weekly moving average envelope is trending down.  The daily MA envelope is also trending down.

RSI is in downtrend mode across both time frames.  

The Dynamic Trailing Stop is in downtrend mode on both charts.  DTS is one of our basic exit signal tools used for for cutting losses and locking in profits when trends change.  The daily DTS has a slightly tighter stop than I mentioned earlier.  Because the trend has not really taken off to the downside, I might very well be inclined to cover short positions if the daily DTS is violated with a close above, even if the higher level is not taken out. 

Weekly ADX still registers non-trending behavior.  The daily ADX indicates a possibly emerging trend. 

My long term Elliott Wave interpretation remains bearish.  

Current Stance

Long Term: Hold USD for savings related funds.

Intermediate Term: Hold Short against level mentioned in post.

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position   

What Are the BEST Technical Indicators for Successful Trading?
8 technical analysis tools that give any trader an edge
By Elliott Wave International

You may have seen a TV ad where "traders" describe their strategies, and one says, "I trade on fundamentals." That sounds very reassuring -- except, which "fundamental" factor trumps the other? Which one carries more weight in your forecast? Your guess is as good (or bad) as anybody's. Your alternative is technical analysis... Read More.