S&P 500 Stock Index 1/20/12

We have been somewhat reluctantly trading the long side of the S&P 500.  Our doubts and the S&P's ability to continue to edge higher show the need for tactical heuristics in trading.  We keep a journal of some discretionary tactics on these pages, but are working on robust automated systems that may be shared in some form or fashion in the future. 


Let's see what the S&P 500 charts say this week.  Will it continue to edge higher and higher, or are we nearing a breakdown in trend? 

Weekly bar prices continue to hold above an upwards trend line.  A large defining price range contains the bigger picture of price action right now.

Intermediate term trend continues to work its way higher.  Will it continue?  I'm out of the longs if that most recent parallel trend channel is broken to the downside. 

Our moving average envelopes in uptrend mode.  Weekly RSI is neutral.  Daily RSI is in uptrend mode on the daily chart.

Dynamic Trailing Stop indicator tracking uptrend on both time frames.  


ADX registers non-trending behavior on the weekly chart, but +DMI has crossed over -DMI recently.  Daily ADX registers trending behavior.  

VIX showing market complacency.  

Put/Call not indication now to be a great time to buy this market.  


Current Stance:
Long Term: Flat

Intermediate term: Long (Assertive traders only!  And with a tight stop.  I would not argue against a flat position right now!!)

Short term: 
My propriety short term system is allowing trades to the long side right now.  Changes in directional orientation as well as entries and exits occur more frequently than the weekly S&P posts to this blog. 

My main intermediate to long term automated system, which is still in various stages of development and testing, is currently long this market.  Side note: I've recently been looking at starting to trade the S&P Mid Cap index.  System testing on the futures contract looks really good so far.  It seems to work better in all time frames than the S&P 500 contract.  I don't really know why, but that's how the data is coming out so far.  

Definitions: 
Flat = no position / not long or short the market. 
Sell / Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position

Hold Short = hold a short position     

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