Weekly price bars are now above the downtrend line. It's possible to label the pattern on the way down from the highs as an Elliott Wave impulse. If so, the rally we get from here could be substantial, but would not be expected to make new highs prior to resuming the larger downtrend. It's not necessary to have the Elliott picture in mind to trade this, but it helps. It also helps if you are trying to decide which currency to hold currency related savings in.
Daily price bars are no longer making lower highs. As long as the current low holds, we could start seeing higher lows form. That's one thing we will be looking at -the next low that gets reversed.
A break of the current lows from here would send us into short positions as it could mean things are accelerating to the downside. As for now, we are still neutral on this market as we watch to see what price does from here.
Moving average envelopes show a mixed trend picture right now. Will the weekly catch up with the daily, or vice versa? We never really know until it happens, at which point we need to be ready to react appropriately.
Weekly RSI is also still in downtrend territory. Daily RSI is pushing against upper resistance. If I had to take a trade on this market, I would go long against the recent lows. But I don't have to!
Mixed picture out of the dynamic trailing stop indicator as well. Daily ADX is perking up a bit.
At the time of this post, 1 USD = 0.92042 CHF.
Current Stance:
Long Term: Flat
Intermediate Term: Flat
Definitions:
Flat = no position / not long or short the market.
Sell Short = positioning to attempt to profit on price declines
Buy / Long = positioning to attempt to profit on price advances
Hold = hold a long position
Hold Short = hold a short position
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